Can Frederiksen Win Over Denmark—Again?

Copenhagen’s Crucial Vote

After a year of unexpected relevance in trans-Atlantic affairs, Denmark held snap parliamentary elections on Tuesday. The vote is anticipated to be a test for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who is hoping to capitalize on her handling of the United States’ threats to acquire Greenland to secure a third term.

For much of U.S. President Donald Trump’s first year back in office, he threatened to take control of the strategically located, mineral-rich Danish territory—at times refusing to rule out military force or economic coercion to do so. But Frederiksen did not back down. Her adamant refusal to relinquish ownership of Greenland ultimately led to Trump reaching a “framework of a future deal” with NATO chief Mark Rutte that de-escalated tensions.

Now, Frederiksen is hoping to use that success to convince voters that her center-left Social Democrats party is the country’s best hope to navigate an increasingly volatile relationship with Washington.

But as U.S. threats toward Greenland have eased, domestic concerns have regained importance, putting Frederiksen’s party on uncertain footing.

Denmark’s proportional representation system means that the country usually sees coalition governments made up of several parties from either the right-wing “blue” bloc or the left-wing “red” bloc. Frederiksen was the first Danish premier in more than 40 years to create a ruling coalition that bridged that left-right divide, with a coalition made up of her center-left party along with the centrist Moderates party and the center-right Venstre party. Yet high costs of living and controversial policy proposals are now threatening to unravel her support.

Among those, conservatives appear most concerned with a proposed wealth tax that would reintroduce a 0.5 percent levy on the country’s 20,000 richest residents to help fund welfare and education programs. Meanwhile, left-wing voters are angry with Frederiksen’s decision in January to introduce legislation that will expel more foreigners, including those with criminal records, from Denmark; experts suggest that Frederiksen agreed to the immigration crackdown to try and appease nationalist parties that were rising in popularity ahead of this week’s election.

Frederiksen’s Social Democrats are predicted to have their weakest electoral showing on Tuesday since before World War II, and a center-right challenger—Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, who is Venstre’s pick for prime minister—appears to be her biggest threat. Heading into the vote, the left-wing bloc (which includes Frederiksen’s Social Democrats) and the right-wing bloc were polling neck and neck, with the left slightly ahead.

As such, the four parliamentary seats allocated to Greenland and the Faroe Islands will be closely watched, as at least one of the two Greenlandic seats could flip from the left to the right for the first time in decades.

All eyes will also be on Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen of the centrist Moderates party, who could likely end up acting as kingmaker to form a coalition.

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What We’re Following

Who actually wants peace? Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered on Tuesday to host peace talks to end the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. “Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict,” Sharif posted on X. The proposal comes one day after Trump said that U.S. negotiators were engaged in “very, very strong talks” with Iran—a claim that Tehran quickly denied.

However, not everyone in the region appears to want the war to end. U.S. officials told the New York Times on Tuesday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been pushing Washington to continue fighting Tehran, calling it a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East. This rhetoric mirrors some of Trump’s own regime-change ambitions for Tehran. Riyadh has rejected Tuesday’s report, stressing that “the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began.”

Israel also appears unwilling so far to pull back its strikes on Iran or its Lebanon-based proxy group, Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Tuesday that the country’s military will expand its ground offensive in southern Lebanon, just 24 hours after far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich suggested that Israel annex Lebanese territory up to the Litani River. There was no immediate comment from the Lebanese government, but senior Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah ​has vowed resistance to Katz’s orders.

Meanwhile, Iranian strikes hit Tel Aviv on Tuesday, causing extensive damage to at least three residential buildings. Four Gulf states also reported Iranian missile and drone threats.

Bolstering ties. Australia signed a free trade agreement with the European Union on Tuesday that removes tariffs on almost all goods, boosts defense cooperation, and paves the way for Europe to have increased access to Australia’s critical minerals. Both sides must still ratify the deal.

According to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the pact is expected to be worth $7 billion annually, as it will save companies around $1.2 billion a year and increase EU exports to Australia by as much as 33 percent over the next decade.

Free trade negotiations, which began eight years ago, intensified in recent months in response to the imposition of Trump’s sweeping tariffs and China’s efforts to dominate the rare-earth sector. “The EU and Australia may be geographically far apart, but we couldn’t be closer in terms of how ​we see the world,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week. “We cannot be over-dependent on any supplier for such crucial ingredients, and that is precisely why we need each other.”

However, not all Australians and Europeans are happy with the deal’s outcome. Some Australian farmers have criticized the agreement for not granting them enough access to the EU market. At the same time, French agricultural workers have denounced the pact as too generous; this same sector has also protested the EU-Mercosur free trade deal, which is set for provisional application on May 1. In response to these concerns, duties will remain on some key Australian products, such as beef and sheep meat.

Deadly plane crash. A military transport aircraft crashed in the Colombian town of Puerto Leguízamo on Monday, killing at least 66 people and injuring dozens more. The plane was carrying 128 troops and crew members to another town in the Putumayo region when it crashed shortly after takeoff. Four people remain unaccounted for. According to Colombian Defense Minister Pedro Sánchez, the incident does not appear to have been an attack by an illegal armed group. Investigations are ongoing.

“At the moment, we don’t know any more details except that as soon as the aircraft took off, it suffered some problem and descended toward the ground, approximately a couple of kilometers from the airport,” said Gen. Carlos Fernando Silva Rueda, commander of Colombia’s air force.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro used the crash to promote his longtime efforts to modernize the country’s military equipment, including its aircraft. “If civilian or military administrative officials are not up to the challenge, they must be removed,” Petro said. He has previously accused “bureaucratic difficulties” of blocking modernization efforts and has gone so far as to suggest that some lawmakers be held accountable. The type of plane involved in the crash was a C-130 Hercules, which is typically used to transport military personnel and vehicles.

Odds and Ends

In an Agatha Christie-style mystery, a famous German sports trophy stolen four months ago reappeared on Monday—right in the champion team’s own basement. Germany’s top men’s handball team, Fuechse Berlin, first reported the large silver dish’s disappearance in November. After a series of raids in January uncovered a silver bar, authorities believed that the thieves had melted down the prized item. Now, though, it appears that the suspects stashed the trophy in a suitcase behind some cardboard boxes in the cellar of Fuechse Berlin’s offices and may have decided not to retrieve it following an avalanche of media attention. “The risk of being caught seemed too high even for the master thieves,” the club said on Monday.