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February Inflation Rate Increases for First Time in 9 Months

The inflation rate saw an uptick for the first time since May 2025.

Kyiv Post

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१२ मार्च, 2026

3 min read

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The rate of inflation grew in February 2026 – the first uptick since May 2025.

In February, inflation rose to 7.6% year over year, Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday – a 1% increase on the January rate. The peak month for inflation over the past year was 15.9% in May 2025.

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Core inflation – an indicator of price pressures excluding highly volatile prices – decelerated to 7% year-over-year.

Hopefully for Ukraine’s economy, Russia’s attacks on the energy sector and the prolonged war did not act as a catalyst for higher inflation during the 2025-2026 winter – a concern Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), had previously voiced. 

Ukraine’s economy is continuing to struggle with economic pressures from Russia’s full-scale invasion, which is making inflation sticky amid seasonal factors. The downward path to the NBU’s 5% target seems to be veering in the wrong direction, although it is not a surprise. The NBU projected inflation at 7% in the first quarter of 2026 in its January 2026 Inflation report, and at 7.5% at the end of 2026.

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Price changes across the basket of goods in February 2026

Vegetables led in price increases (up 13% compared to January 2026) followed by fruits (6.1%), telecommunication services (5.2%), fuel and lubricants (3.3%) and eggs (3.1%).

For a long time, the top five included the category of “miscellaneous goods and services,” but this February it was not among the leaders in price change. This might signal that the hike in salaries in Ukraine has stabilised. This category only increased by 1.2% compared with January 2026.

On average, prices for food products and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 1.4% month-over-month. Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 1.2%, with tobacco products increasing by 1.6%.

However, prices for poultry, pork, sugar, butter, lard, fermented milk products, and cheese fell by between 4.1% and 0.3%.

Clothing and footwear also fell in price by 2.7% overall (clothing by 3.0% and footwear by 2.2%).

Transport prices rose by 1.4%, mainly due to a 3.3% increase in fuel and lubricants costs. Passenger rail transport fares fell by 2.2%.

Prices for restaurants and hotels still showed a 1% increase month-over-month.

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose by 0.3%. These are administratively regulated prices that the government keeps below market levels, which is why they have not yet increased significantly – unless Ukraine’s government decides otherwise.

The key contributor to the deceleration of inflation in Ukraine still remains an increase in the supply of the new harvest of agricultural products.