When the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, there were immediate impacts on the countries to Iran’s west — as Iran struck multiple Gulf Arab states and Jordan, Iraq absorbed direct attacks while facing renewed risks of internal stability, Israel launched intensive airstrikes and ground operations in Lebanon, and other countries and territories in the region struggled to cope with short-term and potential long-term ripple effects. However, Iran’s neighbors to its north and east are not immune to the risks — and opportunities — that the war poses. We asked five experts to assess the impact of the war on Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.Read more below.Laura Linderman Senior Fellow and Director of Programs for the Central Asia Caucasus Institute at the American Foreign Policy CouncilArmenia is experiencing negative economic impacts: Trade via the Meghri crossing with Iran has slowed, and Indian arms transfers routed through Iran have stalled. However, the political stakes matter more, and Yerevan sees a geopolitical opening. Iran and Russia long counterbalanced the Ankara–Baku axis, and that equilibrium is now broken. A distracted Iran — whose opposition complicated plans for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — gives Yerevan room to accelerate a pivot already in motion: the August 2025 Washington summit, the draft peace with Baku, cautious openings to Ankara, an E.U. accession bid, and a steady drift away from Moscow. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has doubled down, including announcing on April 15 that TRIPP implementation had begun.Two risks cut the other way. Armenia is exposed midway through this reorientation, with the leverage to hedge but not to protect itself, and TRIPP’s viability depends on sustained U.S. attention that a distracted and erratic administration may not deliver. If Yerevan and Baku actually cooperate, the South Caucasus could consolidate its exit
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