Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian forces are engaged in an operational long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets, exploiting overstretched Russian air defenses.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin used his April 29 phone call with US President Donald Trump to reiterate his commitment to his original war aims and promote his cognitive warfare effort, falsely portraying Ukraine’s defenses as collapsing and Russian victory in Ukraine as inevitable. Ukraine has largely stymied Russian advances across the frontline, blunting the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive thus far.
- The Kremlin also reportedly used the Trump-Putin call to scold Trump for US-Israeli operations against Iran.
- Russia’s war in Ukraine is forcing the Kremlin to once again downgrade the festivities for its annual May 9 Victory Day parade, an event that Putin has historically used to posture Russian military power and victory in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin is likely using the threat of “terrorist activity” to cloak voter suppression and illegal activities in occupied Ukraine ahead of the September 2026 elections.
- Ukraine’s domestic defense industrial base (DIB) and production capabilities continues to support allies.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in the Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole directions.
- Russian forces launched 171 drones against Ukraine.
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