Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Kremlin officials are reiterating Russia’s commitment to its original war aims of complete Ukrainian capitulation as Ukraine, the United States, and Europe appear ready to restart negotiations to end the war.
- Putin continues to rely on a negotiating tactic that aims to falsely portray the Russian military as on the verge of collapsing Ukrainian defenses.
- The Kremlin is conducting a cognitive warfare campaign to frame potential Ukrainian strikes against legitimate Belarusian targets that support Russian military operations as a Ukrainian escalation against Belarus and the Union State.
- Signal repeaters on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border enable Russian forces to conduct precision drone strikes against the Ukrainian deep-rear and therefore would represent a legitimate military target for potential Ukrainian strikes.
- Belarus has materially supported Russia’s war in Ukraine since 2022 and is effectively a cobelligerent with Russia.
- The Kremlin may attempt to invoke the Union State collective security treaty in an attempt to draw Belarus into the war so that Russia can leverage Belarusian manpower and training resources.
- Russian gains in Kostyantynivka remain limited to small group infiltrations that are not resulting in consolidated territorial control.
- Kremlin officials acknowledged Ukraine’s escalating long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure but downplayed their country-wide impact on fuel supplies.
- The Kremlin continues threatening retaliatory strikes against Ukraine, likely to project strength amid growing domestic gasoline supply shortages.
- Ukrainian forces regained some positions in Kostyantynivka.
- Russian forces launched 135 drones against Ukraine overnight.
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