In the past, Israel largely stood alone on the front line against Iran, occasionally managing to bring the United States and European partners on board, but only on the nuclear issue.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not surprised by Donald Trump’s statement about negotiations with Iran. Once the White House released its list of demands to Tehran, it became clear why.
In the past, Israel largely stood alone on the front line against Iran, occasionally managing to bring the United States and European partners on board, but only on the nuclear issue. Other matters critical to Israel, such as ballistic missiles and Iranian-backed militias in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere, were never included in the broader set of international demands on the ayatollah regime.
That changed with Trump’s demands document. The US president’s proposal closely mirrors Israel’s position. If Washington insists on all its terms, and there is no reason to think it won’t, it would effectively amount to a complete capitulation by Iran and a major victory for Israel.
Netanyahu, however, does not believe Iran will agree to such terms and assumes the outcome will ultimately be decided on the battlefield. Still, the level of coordination between him and Trump is so high that the prime minister appears, at times, willing to let the American president try his own approach without interference. Trump, after all, faces constraints Israel does not, including domestic opposition to the war and broader global economic considerations.
No scenario in which Trump’s America would pull back
Netanyahu has also succeeded in aligning not just the United States with Israel’s positions on missiles and proxy forces, but other countries as well, many of which had previously remained on the sidelines. Chief among them are the Gulf states. In fact, those same countries are now among the strongest voices urging Washington not to compromise with Iran on these issues, with Israel only one of several pushing that line.
Security discussions in Israel have produced a clear assessment: the United States has already invested billions in the war with Iran. According to Israeli estimates, there is no scenario in which Trump’s America would pull back, effectively leaving Iran to Russia and China to dominate and profit from its collapse. From Trump’s perspective, the United States and it alone should reap the benefits of the campaign against Iran.
As for the possibility of regime collapse, Israeli officials believe that outcome is also within reach, even though it does not appear explicitly in the American list of demands. This week, Iran introduced a new 10 million rial banknote, worth just under 24 shekels, underscoring the depth of its economic crisis. The war has only made matters worse. A regime that is already struggling to fund its Revolutionary Guard forces and government institutions is unlikely to recover anytime soon, even after the fighting ends. Severe water shortages and disrupted trade only add to the strain.
Even if sanctions were lifted, the situation would be unlikely to improve enough to stabilize the country. From here, much depends on the Iranian people themselves. If protests resume, potentially with aerial backing from Israel and the United States, regime change could follow, if not immediately, then in the not-too-distant future.
