New Confidence in Ukraine to Defend Itself, and Others
The war in Iran has probably extended the war in Ukraine, but the country now seems in a much better position to defend itself and to position itself as a key strategic partner for others
Kyiv Post
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The war in Iran has taken the focus off the war in Ukraine - a reflection perhaps that global markets appear more vulnerable now to developments in the Gulf than those in Ukraine where in many respects resilience to the war, for global markets, has been built over time.
US peace efforts on Ukraine have also appeared to have fallen by the wayside - with the likes of Witkoff, Kushner et al being drafted in to try and craft a peace deal with Iran, so less oxygen and air miles to focus on Ukraine, not that they had got very far after a year or more of trying. This is also understandable given that the war in Iran now appears more existential to Trump’s poll ratings and the GOP’s chances in midterms.
In terms of Russia and Ukraine also both sides appear to have taken fresh energy, or impetus, from developments in the Gulf war to suggest they can hold out longer for a win in their own war.
Russia, for its part, has seen the Gulf war bring much needed economic relief. As is, prior to the U.S./Israeli move to attack Iran, there was much to suggest a tightening in the Western sanctions regime on Russia, alongside increasingly successful Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure, were having effect.
The Urals oil price discount on Brent was running at close to one third, oil production and export volumes were down and energy export receipts were running at around half the levels seen in the period around the full-scale invasion. The trade surplus was crimped, the budget deficit had bloated to 1.5% of GDP in the first two months of 2026, close to the full year target. The Russian authorities were forced to contemplate tax hikes and spending cuts to rein in the deficit.
Russian drones struck a residential area in Sumy overnight, damaging apartment buildings, cars and a medical facility and injuring four people, including a 17-year-old.
And then the idiotic Trump decision to go to war with Iran, and Russia’s macro position received a lifeline. Oil prices close to doubled for Urals blend and while those Ukrainian attacks still restricted increased production and loading of oil cargoes, the U.S. Treasury eased sanctions on major Russian oil producers, allowing Russia to sell down some of the 140 million barrels of oil it had stuck at sea.
This has literally been “manna from heaven” - getting the Russian economy out of a tightening budget and credit noose - and thereby helping to sustain its military campaign longer. IEA data shows Russian energy receipts in March higher by over $9bn from February and close to $5bn higher on the year earlier period. Russia now expects its coffers to be filled by the war in Iran helping to sustain its war on Ukraine longer.
Russia also assumes that with the U.S. drawing down scarce air defense munitions in the Gulf that means less available to support Ukraine - hence its defenses will eventually buckle under the relentless Russian barrage of drones and missiles.
And Moscow also assumes the war in Ukraine will just further weaken the NATO alliance, as Trump has intervened in Iran against key European and NATO ally interests. They likely expect future fissures between the U.S. and NATO allies on Greenland et al. Watch that space - or Moscow is, and it assumes the weakening in the NATO alliance weakens the ability and willingness of the West to continue to back Ukraine.
Putin still thinks he can outlast the West on Ukraine and Trump’s latest adventures in Iran have just hardened that view. I think Putin also thinks that after failure on Iran that Trump will want to return to the Ukraine peace deal for a win - but that likely will mean forcing a bad deal again on Ukraine and to Russia’s advantage.
On the Ukrainian side I also sense a new feeling of confidence:
First, Ukraine survived a brutal winter both in terms of the temperature but also the severity of the Russian assault. And all this with dwindling support from the U.S. - note JD Vance’s gloating last week that his biggest achievement in office was stopping aid to Ukraine. That was aid to defend against Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and civilians - war crimes and genocide. Maybe Vance should look at his own moral compass rather than that of the Pope’s.
Fortunately, the temperature is now rising in Ukraine as Spring approaches, easing pressure on Ukrainian civilians.
Second, Ukraine has seen greater success both in stabilizing the front lines and launching deep strike drones on Russian energy infrastructure. Both appear related to advances in drone capability. This is helping to counter Ukraine’s manpower deficiencies but also helping put Ukraine on the front foot - halting Russian territorial advances and even seeing Ukraine make small gains. This was seen in recent days in an all-robotic assault on Russian positions which enabled Ukraine to capture territory.
On deep strike drones Ukraine seems to have gained some tactical advantage - and is willing to take advantage of this perhaps narrow window to degrade Russia’s energy export capabilities. Reuters reports that as much as 40% of Russian oil export capacity might have been hit in recent attacks on Primorsk, UST Luga, in the Black Sea and elsewhere.
Previously Ukraine had appeared constrained by the requests from Western allies not to go overboard attacking Russian energy assets for fear of negatively impacting global markets. However, with Trump having attacked Iran, seemingly against European interests to keep energy prices low, Ukraine perhaps thinks hey ho then no holds barred on us.
I think the logic is if Russia is benefitting from higher oil prices then best to try and restrict its export volumes by attacking its export assets - this still leaves Russia free to sell down oil assets at sea and now benefitting from sanctions being lifted by the U.S. Ukraine I think thinks “well the US is acting on its interests, ignoring Ukraine’s and limiting aid to Ukraine anyway so why should it listen to the U.S. anymore?
Actually, the above also reflects increasing confidence by Ukraine of its ability to sustain the war without US support - on the back of the development of its own arms industry and Europe.
Ukraine’s military prowess has been further augmented by the war in Iran as Gulf states have been lining up to sign defense cooperation agreements with Ukraine. Therein, by resisting Russian (and Iranian) drones for over four years and now helping the Gulf defend against Iranian drones Ukraine has established itself as the number one drone defender/killer. It is now benefitting from big defense contracts with Gulf money fueling the development of its defense industries - now leading in Europe. Ukraine will also hope that these defense ties will also bring future diplomatic, soft power wins against Russia, help to turn the global south against Russian aggression.
Third, in Europe, Victor Orban’s defeat in elections in Hungary will hopefully remove a persistent thorn in Ukraine’s side within the EU. And already the new leader elect of Hungary, Peter Magyar, has suggested that he will no longer stand in the way of the EU’s €90 billion financing facility for Ukraine. That facility, alongside other multilateral and bilateral commitments ($8 billion this year alone from Norway) will assure Ukraine’s finances for several years to come, enabling it to fund its defense and irrespective of whatever madness emanates from the White House and pure evil from the Kremlin.
Fourth, the Iran war seems to have driven the final nail in the coffin of NATO and the transatlantic alliance. We are moving to a world of great power competition but also of middle powers looking to work together to better defend themselves against these same “great” powers. New alliances are set to be formed and Ukraine, with the second largest, and perhaps best performing military in Europe, plus real capability in must have drone capability has assets which other middle powers want, even need, so it has leverage.
In Europe, if Russia is the existential threat, and the U.S. backstop is no longer there, then the keys to European defense lies in a wall of steel or drones, consisting of Finland, Poland, Ukraine and Turkiye. But what is clear is Europe cannot defend itself now without Ukraine - the key to Europe’s defense against Russia is Ukraine. And the realization of this has now dawned on mainstream Europe - so that is why European countries are now queuing up to sign defense deals with Ukraine, including a new €4 billion Ukraine - Germany defense deal signed this week. But we are seeing similar deals signed with Denmark, France, the U.K. and Italy.
The debate was about whether to admit Ukraine into NATO, to extend the European defense umbrella to Ukraine. Now it is how to extend Ukraine’s defense umbrella over Europe. Ukraine is now a bigger defense asset to Europe than NATO the other way around. NATO membership is now almost meaningless for Ukraine.
But what is clear is Europe cannot defend itself now without Ukraine - the key to Europe’s defense against Russia is Ukraine.
And we can see similar trends with Turkiye, and into the Gulf now, even Syria. Ukraine holds the keys to broader defense and security for many mid-level powers in Europe, and the Middle East.
In conclusion here - Unfortunately - the war in Iran has probably extended the war in Ukraine. The silver lining here is Ukraine now seems in a much better position to defend itself and to position itself as a key strategic partner for others - which will help in its own defense.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
See the original in the author’s tashecon bloghere.
