The escalating war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is driving a sharp increase in global prices for diesel and fertilizers, threatening to significantly undermine Ukraine’s agricultural production and export capacity, Reuters reported.
Ukrainian farmers are already feeling the impact. Mykola Maliienko, a 70-year-old farmer operating 1,200 hectares near the village of Malopolovetske, less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Kyiv, said he is sowing 100 fewer hectares of corn this spring due to the spike in costs. According to Maliienko, diesel prices have nearly doubled since late February, reaching 92 UAH per liter.
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“Our export potential could fall substantially,” Maliienko said. “This year it will decline by 15% to 20%, and if the situation continues that could reach as much as 40%.”
The disruption in energy markets serves as an economic windfall for Russia. As a significant oil and gas producer, Moscow benefits from high global prices while providing its own farmers with cheap, domestic reserves of fuel and fertilizers. In contrast, Ukraine remains heavily dependent on imports after Russian strikes destroyed the country’s domestic refineries.
Industry experts warn that the crisis extends beyond fuel. The shortage of natural gas – a key component in nitrogen fertilizer production – is further straining agricultural budgets. Dmitry Skornyakov, CEO of HarvEast, predicts that average production costs for Ukrainian farmers could rise by 20% to 30% in the short term, with overall production volumes potentially falling by 5% to 10% this season.
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