Tehran's theater of mourning: What Khamenei's funeral tells us about Iran's next move - analysis

Iran is burying its former leader in a week-long ceremony. Will it now use the boost to try to claw back its influence across the Middle East?

The Jerusalem Post
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Tehran's theater of mourning: What Khamenei's funeral tells us about Iran's next move - analysis
People gather at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla for a farewell ceremony for Iran's late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 4, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Khamenei and members of his family were killed on February 28 during U.S.-Israeli strikes at the beginning of the war, bringing an end to his 36-year rule.
People gather at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla for a farewell ceremony for Iran's late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 4, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. Khamenei and members of his family were killed on February 28 during U.S.-Israeli strikes at the beginning of the war, bringing an end to his 36-year rule.
(photo credit: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
BySETH J. FRANTZMAN
JULY 5, 2026 14:21
Updated: JULY 5, 2026 16:31

Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in Iran for the funeral of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Khamenei was killed when the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Now Iran is burying him in a week-long ceremony. What is Iran trying to accomplish and say with this funeral? Here are five angles that are worth paying attention to:

Who is attending?

Iran has indicated it is prepared to host “dozens” of world leaders during the funeral. However, the overall attendance has generally been from dignitaries who are not leaders but rather deputies or various ministers.

There have been delegations from countries around the Middle East and Asia. This is the “global south” that Iran’s regime sought to appear to.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev pays his respects to Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran July 3, 2026.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev pays his respects to Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran July 3, 2026. (credit: Sputnik/Oleg Molchanov/Pool via REUTERS )

However, Iran’s position has become more isolated in recent years. Had Khamenei died several years ago, it’s plausible more world leaders might have considered attending this event.

What do we know about those who did attend? Central Asian countries, such as Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, sent delegations. These countries enjoy increasingly good ties with Iran.

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon expressed condolences and hopes for peace during a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, according to reports. Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, the former president of Turkmenistan, also attended.

Overall, Iran expected some 30 delegations to attend. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said at least eight heads of government or state and parliamentary speakers from 12 countries would attend, Euronews noted. This included delegations from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Russia’s former President and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev was sent as an envoy for President Vladimir Putin. China is sending the vice chair of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.

Afghanistan’s Taliban also sent their foreign minister. Iraq’s delegation was headed by President Nizar Amidi. The Kurdistan Regional Government president Nechirvan Barzani also came. Pakistan, India, Russia and China are all countries that have decent relations with Iran and are part of an emerging multi-polar world order.

Iranian leaders attend, but not the new supreme leader

CNN and other outlets have noted the absence of the new supreme leader. “Three of Khamenei’s sons join mass mourning in Tehran, but not his successor,” a report noted. Mojtaba Khamenei is the new supreme leader.

He has not been seen in public and is believed to be wounded from the same attacks that killed his father. Among the attendees were also representatives of Iran’s proxy network in the region.

“Representatives of Tehran-backed militant groups attended the funeral ceremonies of slain Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, with envoys from Hezbollah and Hamas meeting with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, state media reported,” France24 added.

 Iran’s IRGC Quds Force commander Brigadier General Esmail Qaani and Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi both attended the prayers linked to the multi-day funeral.

The goal here is for Iran to show that its leadership and officials can still appear in public.

However, the absence of the new Supreme Leader is important. Is he too wounded to attend? Is he alive? Is he afraid of being killed? Or, is the answer more complex? Perhaps he will appear when his father is buried. He doesn’t want to eclipse his father.

Iran’s show of force

The funeral is a show of force for Iran. Six months ago there were large protests in Iran in late December and early January. A crackdown by Iran led to the massacre of tens of thousands of people.

As such, Tehran’s regime is wary of allowing any kind of dissent. The goal of the funeral is to show that the regime can galvanize support from millions. In a country of 90 million people, having a million supporters of the regime is not a surprise. The question is whether this show of force actually reflects the will of the people.

A show of force for the region

Iran is seeking to use the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to reinforce its regional influence and project continuity after months of conflict.

As noted above, the ceremonies have drawn senior officials, militia leaders, and representatives from across the Middle East, providing Tehran with an opportunity to demonstrate resilience.

This comes despite obvious military setbacks and economic pressure. By hosting key partners from Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere, Iran aims to signal that its alliances remain intact and that what it calls the “Axis of Resistance” continues to pose a threat to the region.

In this sense, the funeral has become both a domestic display of unity and a diplomatic stage for regional messaging.

Will Iran get a boost from the funeral?

Key questions now remain about what comes next. Will Iran use the boost it feels from the week-long funeral to begin to try to claw back its influence? Will it now stall in the talks with the US?

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