The war with Iran has had ripple effects across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq, and Jordan have suffered direct attacks from Iran, and Iraq also faces violence from Iranian-aligned militias. In response to an attack from Hizballah, Israel has intensively bombed parts of Lebanon and launched an expanded ground invasion in the south.While those countries coping with the direct impacts of the war receive — and deserve — attention, the war is also affecting other parts of the region, highlighting that the conflict will have wide-ranging and long-standing effects. We asked five experts to assess the impact so far on Yemen, Syria, the West Bank, Gaza, and North Africa.Read more below.Gregory D. Johnsen Non-Resident Fellow at the Arab Gulf States InstituteThe Houthis’ relative inaction during Operation Epic Fury is best explained by the group’s attempt to balance three competing constituencies. First, the group — which is unpopular domestically — wants to avoid alienating Yemenis living under its rule. The Palestinian cause is broadly popular in Yemen, but Iran is not. At the same time, the Houthis need to demonstrate at least the capability to enter the conflict on the side of Iran, whose ballistic missiles have transformed the Houthis into a regional player. However, the Houthis also need to consider their own future, which is largely tied to financial support from and a political deal with Saudi Arabia.By firing a handful of missiles at Israel in recent days, the Houthis are doing two things at once. They are showing that they can and will fight, while holding in reserve their main military card: strikes on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.Alexander McKeever Author of the Substack newsletter, “This Week in Northern Syria“With just one U.S. military base left in the country and no overt Iranian presence, Syria has largely
Members-Only Content
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis.
