The economic divide between the United States and China is projected to widen to US$11 trillion by the end of the decade, yet escalating geopolitics – specifically the war in Iran and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis – could inadvertently act as a stabilising force for bilateral ties, according to a prominent global strategist.
Kishore Mahbubani, former president of the UN Security Council and once a top diplomat from Singapore, has forecast that the gross-domestic-product disparity between the world’s two largest economies may become more pronounced, and that anyone who believes the US is weakening “ought to have his head examined”.
“The US still remains the most powerful economy. Even in the 2000s and 2010s, when China grew much faster, the gap in size has not diminished,” Mahbubani said, speaking on Tuesday at the China Conference hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.
“[The gap] has actually grown. In 2020, US GDP was US$21 trillion, China’s was US$15 trillion – US$6 trillion gap,” he explained. “In 2030, US GDP is expected to reach US$37.6 trillion and China US$26 trillion – the gap will go from 6 trillion to 11 trillion.”
But in a similar vein, he said those saying China may be losing out should also have their heads checked.
“China’s emergence has been the single largest transformation in world history … The size and scale of China’s resurgence in such a short space of time is beyond amazing,” Mahbubani told an audience that included Julie Eadeh, US consul-general in Hong Kong, and Cui Jianchun, commissioner of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
With US President Donald Trump expected to embark on a high-stakes visit to China next month, Mahbubani stressed that managing the relationship would require a “tremendous amount” of wisdom and cooperation.
