Whether the US-Israeli war on Iran wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions will be felt for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics and energy security as well as how the world sees the United States and its tactical and strategic capabilities. In the second of a three-part series, we examine some of the implications likely to unfold over months and years, affecting the future of conflict in an increasingly unstable world.
As the United States and Israel wage war on Iran, they are also operating a real-time laboratory of military lessons for Beijing, which has been closely taking notes on how Washington exercises power and sustains a costly and politically fraught campaign.
Now in its sixth week, the conflict is a rare window for China to gauge American wartime resilience and holds implications for Beijing’s strategic assessment and decision-making.
The US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire deal on Tuesday, with negotiations to begin on Friday in Pakistan’s Islamabad. The outcome of the talks remains to be seen, and the temporary ceasefire does not amount to a formal end to hostilities.
Analysts cautioned that US advantages in intelligence, technology and rapid operational adaptability on display in the conflict would not automatically translate into sustained warfighting capacity.
Constraints that were structurally undermining Washington’s capacity to remedy vulnerabilities included a shrinking defence industrial base, the high costs of asymmetric warfare and growing international and domestic disquiet, they said.
01:04
Trump’s fiery, foul-mouthed message threatening Iran draws criticism
