Where is Flamingo? Analysis of all known attacks using Ukrainian FP-5 missiles
Ukrainska Pravda
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More than eight months have passed since the first photo and specifications of the Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile appeared. It is reported to have a strike range of up to 3,000 km and a warheadweightof up to 1,100 kg.
This system, developed by Fire Point, has generated both scepticism and admiration. On the one hand, there are claims of large production capacity and relatively low cost; on the other, thereis talk of"simple" technological solutions and conceptual shortcomings that may affect its strike effectiveness.
For a long time, nothing was known about its real combat use. The key question, therefore, remains: is the FP-5 Flamingo still an experimental weapon, or is it becoming a fully operational strike system?
Ukrainska Pravda hasanalysed every attack using Flamingo missilesdocumentedin open sources, as well as satellite imagery after strikes. The analysis used data from the CyberBoroshno, Exilenova+ and Dnipro OSINTcommunities. We assess which strikes were successful and how often these missiles actually hit their targets.
Launch of an FP-5 at the Kapustin Yar range in Russia.
Photo: Denis Shtilerman
How was the analysis conducted?
Open sources confirm a total ofsixverified attacks using Flamingo missiles.
Fire Point chief designer Denis Shtilerman occasionally publishes FP-5 launch videos on hisXaccount. These postscorrelatewith official reports from Ukraine's defence forces aboutthe use ofFlamingo, as well as Russian media posts and images.
However, launch data alone is not sufficient: a missile must not only reach its target but also hit it. To assess accuracy, we compared military reports with satellite imagery, which allowsfora relatively precise evaluation of strike results.
In total,23launched Flamingo cruise missiles have been captured in available footage. Ukrainian OSINT analysts identified thatsixreached their targets, but onlytwosuccessfully hit the intended objective. One additional strike remains disputed.
Below follows a breakdown of each strike. It is important to note that all information presented is based solely on open-source intelligence. The actual number of launches or hits may be higher, and the ratio of launches to successful strikes may differ significantly.
Debut: strike onanFSB borderpostin Crimea
Flamingo first appeared publicly in occupied Armyansk (Crimea), at an FSB border post 120 km from the line of contact. The strike took place on 31 August, conducted by Ukraine's defence forces. Out of at leastthree missileslaunched, one definitely reached the target area – but it missed and fell into water near the base. Satellite imagery shows damage to a building, but it is unclear which weapon caused it, or whether it reflects the claimed power oftheFlamingo.
Nevertheless, this was the first confirmed case of an FP-5 missile reaching a Russian target at alland demonstratedits existence.
Satellite image after the strike (slightly enhanced with AI).
Photo: Exilenova+
Second strike: attempted attack on a combined heat and power plant in Oryol
On 13 November 2025, Ukraine's defence forcesattempted to strikea combined heat and power plant in the city of Oryol, over 170 km from the border. At least four missiles were launched, but satellite imagery showed no fresh signs of hits or damage near the facility.
It appears the missiles were intercepted by Russian air defence. One likely downingof a Flamingowas captured on avideopostedby the OSINT community Exilenova+.
A missile, likely to be a Flamingo, downed over Oryol.
Photo: Exilenova+
Third strike: attack on artillery arsenal near Kotluban. First confirmed hit
The arsenal of Russia's Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) in Kotluban is of significant importance to the Russian armed forces. The facility includes reinforced bunkers for storing ammunition that are effectively out of reach of conventional UAVs. That is why the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile was used to strike targets of this kind.
On 12 February, at least six cruise missileswere launchedat the GRAU arsenal from a distance of more than 500 km from the line of contact. Of the six, only one reached the target, striking a bunker with an area of 1,200 sq m. As a result, the ammunition began to detonate and the premises were destroyed.
Satellite images taken after the strike (slightly enhanced using AI).
Photo: Dnipro Osint
This was the first recorded Flamingo hit and the first strike at such depth carried out by missiles of this type.
Fourthstrike:attackon the Kapustin Yar training ground, the deployment site of the Oreshnik system– amiss
During January 2026, Ukrainian forces attacked the Kapustin Yar training ground, specifically Site No 105, from which missiles of the Oreshnik system are launched. On 27 January, at least four missileswere launchedat the facility. Only one reached the area. However, it was either intercepted on approach or missed the target and fell near the perimeter fence of the site. The crater it left is visible in satellite imagery.
The crater from the remains of the Flamingo missile near the perimeter fence of Site No 105.
Photo: Dnipro Osint
Nevertheless, the facility was hit during this period after all. However, analysts from theCyberBoroshnocommunity report that these strikes were carried out by Ukrainian drones rather than missiles.
Fifthstrike:attackon the Iskander missile production plant in the city of Votkinsk– adirect hit
We now turn to the location where the Flamingo demonstrated its best performance: the strike on a critically important facility belonging to Russia's military-industrial complex more than 1,300 km from the border.
The Votkinsk plant specialises in the production of ballistic missiles, including RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as engines for Iskander operationalandtactical missile systems.
One of the three missiles launched struck WorkshopNo.22 in BuildingNo.19, the electroplating and stamping facility, experts from theCyberBoroshnocommunity report. "A strike on a workshop of this kind may have a critical impact on the production cycle, since it is here that the basic structure of the missilecasingsis formed and their technological preparation for the final stages of assembly is carried out," the analysts wrote.
Images of the damaged workshop at the Votkinsk plant (slightly enhanced using AI).
Photo: CyberBoroshno
We do not yet know all the details regarding the consequences, but this appears to have been a serious strike against the plant.
Sixthstrike:attackon the buildings of the Promsintez plant in the city of Chapayevsk– amiss
On 28 March 2026, the defence forceslaunchedat least three missiles at the Promsintez plant in Chapayevsk. The facility specialises in the production of explosive components used in themanufactureof ammunition.
During the attack, Ukrainian missileswere captured on videolaterpostedby the Exilenova+ community. Of the three missiles, two reached the facility, but neither struck the intended building, instead falling near the workshops. It is likely that the missiles were either intercepted at the last moment or struck a nearby lightningrod. The strike on Chapayevsk could have been successful.
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As can be seen from the available data, the FP-5 Flamingo still appears to be more of an experimental weapon than a regular strike asset. The missiles often reach their intended targets but fail to hit the required point.
Accuracy problems are acknowledged by the company itself. "Flamingo's accuracy issues are largely related to the fact that the flights are conducted at very low altitudes," chief designer Denys Shtilerman said in aninterviewwith Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon.
It is difficult to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the programme as a whole, since open sources confirm only 23 launches, while as early as last autumn Shtilerman stated in an interview with Ukrainian media outletMirror of the Weekthat two to three missiles were being produced per day.
This means that the results of the overwhelming majority of launches remain unknown to the wider public.
By Harbuz (Dnipro OSINT)
Translated by Yelyzaveta Khodatska and Anna Kybukevych
