Transcript
The war expanded very rapidly. Iran obviously had plans to retaliate against the entire region in the event of these kinds of strikes and proceeded to do so. It has hit U.S. bases around the region and has also hit civilian targets in places like the United Arab Emirates. And it has, of course, hit Israel, which began with a devastating series of strikes that essentially decapitated the Iranian government. Fighting is continuing. U.S. officials are expressing optimism that they are getting the better of the Iranians. But this is far from over.
This has shattered stability, such as it was, in the region. We have to remember that we have basically been in a state of war since the Hamas attacks on Israel of October 7th, 2023. Israel has continued to attack targets in Syria and Lebanon despite alleged ceasefires. It has also been going after Hamas members in Gaza, albeit at a slower pace. So, there has not been peace in this region for quite some time. That said, everything has now been advanced. In addition to its own attacks, we have had Iran’s partners in the region, Hezbollah and others, get into the act. There is a new war between Israel and Lebanon as a result. As I’m speaking, the Houthis in Yemen have not yet joined the fight. But Iraqi militias that have been supported by Iran have staged attacks, particularly on U.S. bases in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Certainly, this offensive will lessen Iran’s ability to project power in the region through conventional military means. Iran will be even poorer, more dysfunctional than it was before the attacks. But Iran has always exerted influence in the region by virtue of its size, by virtue of its Shia faith, by virtue of the many links that exist between Iranians and residents of so many other countries in the region, particularly Lebanon and Iraq, as well as Shia communities in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere. So, the notion that you are going to deprive Iran of all of its regional influence is delusional.
For the time being, Iran is being led by a council of three people: the president of the country, a senior cleric who may be the next supreme leader, and the head of the judiciary. There is also a man named Ali Larijani, the national security advisor of Iran. This is the second time he’s served in that position. He is an interesting character with some pragmatic tendencies. But we are awaiting the formal election of a new supreme leader by something called the Council of Experts. They have yet to meet. The Israelis bombed the headquarters of this organization just recently, so if they do meet, it will probably be virtually.
