Putin’s mystique has often been associated with the behavior of a cornered rat. Now it seems that rat is lashing out at a new iteration of NATO – one it had not foreseen.
Kyiv Post
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With the war between Russia and Ukraine in its fifth year, two new and steady trends are shaping the mood and behavior of its main actors. The first is inside Russia. Among the original “Z‑audience” of Putin’s war enthusiasts, including many who have actually fought, dissatisfaction with the course of the war and its prospects is quietly growing.
What makes this discontent so telling is its vagueness. Few articulate a clear alternative, whether to stop the war altogether or, on the contrary, to abandon “restraint” and escalate brutal strikes on Ukrainian cities. Instead, the prevailing feeling is closer to a line from a famous song by Vladimir Vysotsky: “No, guys, everything is wrong, everything is wrong, guys.”
Authoritarian regimes do not survive for long when hundreds of thousands of armed men begin to feel this way. Inevitably, anxiety in the bunker has grown. Some prominent regime loyalists, such as Konstantin Zatulin, a leading ideologue of “Russian dominance in the post‑Soviet space,” now openly suggest “abandoning some of the goals of the special military operation as clearly unattainable.” Putin either allows such damaging statements by choice or is no longer able to prevent them.
Onto this already tense situation came a shock the Kremlin did not expect, the sudden emergence, like Venus rising from sea foam, of an updated military‑political alliance: NATO 2.0 (not yet formalized, but de facto operating)
The reported strike comes as Moscow tightens security ahead of the Victory Day celebrations, with authorities planning internet shutdowns, airport closures, and restrictions across the capital.
Fifty long months of heroic resistance to Russia’s invasion, the immense sacrifices of the Ukrainian people, the skill of Ukraine’s diplomats, and the creativity of its designers of high‑tech weapons that have permanently changed modern warfare have together produced what can only be called the Ukrainian Miracle.
Once a powerless “candidate for candidacy” begging security guarantees from an overprotective patron across the ocean, Ukraine’s Cinderella has instead been recognized within NATO 2.0 as a donor of European, and now more than European, security. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have become the very European army that strategists in the Old World dreamed of for decades, never quite trusting, rightly, as it turns out, the guarantees of any American president.
This is an army for which a rapidly expanding network of joint ventures with Ukraine across Europe is designing weapons shaped by its unique combat experience and often built on Ukrainian innovations. The allies are not just emptying old stockpiles; they are creating a new generation of modern weapons.
The constructive cooperation between Ukraine and its partners in NATO 2.0 has generated a wave of growing strategic confidence among Ukrainians.
The prospect of a new European security architecture with Ukraine and its armed forces at the center has shocked the Kremlin. They are beginning to realize that it is too late to “abandon some of the goals of the special military operation”: history has already cancelled all of them.
Two waves moving toward each other – the growing alienation of Russian society and the growing strategic confidence of Ukrainians – are creating a textbook perfect storm. Putin can no longer simply sit in the Valdai bunker listening to Gen. Valery Gerasimov’s reports about the latest “capture” of Kupyansk. He has to make choices, and he has no good options left.
Russia’s Defense Ministry has already published a target list on NATO territory: 27 defense‑industry sites that either work with Ukraine or for Ukraine. In recent days, the regime’s talking heads on every propaganda channel have been solemnly persuading one another, and their commander‑in‑chief, that striking these facilities is absolutely necessary to “save the Orthodox Fatherland.” Among them are a few genuinely serious military experts, such as Dmitry Trenin, a former GRU analyst and until recently the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. He, of all people should understand how eagerly NATO 2.0’s planners are waiting for the first strike on one of the locations on that list – for example, this address in Ankara: İhsan Doğramacı Boulevard, ODTÜ Technopark, SATGEB zone, No. 160, home to the firm Tualcom.
The residents of that pleasant boulevard in Ankara, and of Via dell’Artigianato on the edge of Venice, have already been warned in a tweet by Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, about their supposed need for imminent evacuation.
As we noted the constructive cooperation between Ukraine and its partners in NATO 2.0 has generated a wave of growing strategic confidence among Ukrainians. Recognizing the priceless contribution of these “400 Ukrainian Spartans” to Europe’s defense, the allies are providing every form of military support they can apart from the direct participation of their regular combat units. The leaders of NATO 2.0 countries grasp the necessity of that step, but their voters, watching from comfortable and prosperous places like Via dell’Artigianato, are not yet ready. They support Ukraine overwhelmingly, but as for sending troops, they still lack convincing arguments.
We once called Donald Trump the founding father of NATO 2.0. Let his partner, Vladimir Putin, crown the creation of this remarkable organization by giving European citizens such an argument.
Hic Rhodus – you drew up a list of 27 Rhodi yourself – hic salta.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Dr. Andrei Piontkovsky is a Russian scientist, political writer and analyst, member of International PEN Club who was forced to leave Russia in 2016. For many years he has been a regular political commentator for the BBC World Service, Radio Liberty, Voice of America. Piontkovsky is the author of several books on the Putin presidency, including Another Look into Putin's Soul and Russian Identity (published by Hudson Institute). In 2017, Piontkovsky was awarded the Andrei Sakharov Prize for “Courage in Journalism.” In 2019, he was recognized by the Algemeiner publication as one of the Top-100 People Positively Influencing Jewish Life. Dr. Andrei Pointkovsky, Wikipedia
Anton Eremin is a Washington D.C. founder and leader of a civic, nonpartisan community focused on human rights, the rule of law, and a democratic future for Russia.
