U.S. Might Be Close to a Deal With Iran

Under Review

The United States might be close to a deal with Iran that would end their two-month-old war and defer key disputed issues to a future negotiation. According to Axios, a 14-point memorandum of understanding calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sets a framework for more talks.

The Trump administration was expecting a response from Iran within 48 hours, Axios said.

“If they [Iran] don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Multiple versions of the draft are reportedly under discussion, a Pakistani source familiar with Islamabad’s mediation efforts told the New York Post on Wednesday. “Which one is going to be approved, no one knows,” the source said.

However, several key points remain in contention. U.S. officials and two other briefed sources told Axios on Wednesday that the proposed memorandum would establish a 30-day period of negotiation to discuss a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear enrichment, but the length of such a suspension remains disputed. Iran has proposed a five-year ban, while the United States has demanded a 20-year halt. Washington also wants to insert a provision that would extend the moratorium if Tehran violates its enrichment terms.

On top of these conditions, the White House is demanding that Tehran promise not to seek a nuclear weapon, and it is pushing for a clause that would prohibit Iran from operating underground nuclear facilities. Nuclear sites would also be required to submit to snap United Nations inspections.

During this 30-day period, both sides would also discuss the gradual lifting of U.S. sanctions and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds. Earlier this week, the United States and its Persian Gulf allies proposed a U.N. resolution threatening Iran with more sanctions if it refused to halt its attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

“We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday. “This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile.”

Trump has already paused “Project Freedom,” a mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strategic waterway—citing progress in peace talks. However, he told the New York Post on Wednesday that it is “too soon” to begin considering face-to-face negotiations with Iran.

Reports of a possible peace deal have injected optimism into global oil markets. Brent crude prices dropped some 11 percent on Wednesday to around $96 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures plunged as much as 15 percent to $88 a barrel.

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Demanding transparency. The Philippines urged Myanmar on Wednesday to allow a special envoy with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to visit detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. “We ​view these developments as vital steps in a ​sequence of confidence-building measures necessary for long-term ⁠national stability in Myanmar,” the Philippines, acting as ​this year’s ASEAN chair, said in a statement. Although Myanmar is a member of the regional bloc, its junta leaders have been barred from participating in high-level ASEAN meetings since a military coup ousted Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.

Last month, Myanmar’s junta reduced Aung San Suu Kyi’s 27-year sentence by one-sixth and moved her to house arrest as part of a sweeping amnesty declaration for thousands of prisoners. Authorities also freed the country’s democratically elected president, U Win Myint. Experts believe that these moves were part of the military’s wider push to legitimize itself on the world stage. Following these announcements, Thailand urged ASEAN to formally recognize Myanmar’s military government.

Yet access to Aung San Suu Kyi remains limited, prompting the bloc to demand greater transparency surrounding her condition. On Wednesday, the Philippines urged Myanmar to allow the former leader to communicate with her family, and it reiterated Manila’s support for ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, a peace framework whose implementation has largely failed.

Reducing dependence. G-7 trade ministers gathered in Paris on Wednesday to discuss new strategies to stabilize the critical minerals sector. “I believe we will make very concrete progress on rare earths and critical minerals, securing our supply chains ​and ensuring we are not held hostage by certain countries,” French Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier said.

China dominates the global critical minerals industry. Using export controls and import halts, China has all but shaped the rare earths market to fit its needs. In response, the United States has invested more in critical minerals to try to transform itself into the world’s new go-to supplier.

However, many foreign governments view both China and the United States as unreliable partners, especially after the White House issued new tariff threats on Monday against European-made cars. This has forced several G-7 nations to consider ways to reduce their reliance on both superpowers.

G-7 ministers, including the United States, agreed on Wednesday to work together to reduce their dependence on rare earths and “ensure that attempts or threats to weaponize economic dependencies will fail.” They did not mention China by name.

Trading blame. Sudan accused Ethiopia on Tuesday of launching drone strikes at several key sites in the country, including Khartoum International Airport. According to Sudanese Brig. Gen. Asim Awad Abdelwahab, Ethiopia has fired four drones allegedly acquired from the United Arab Emirates out of its Bahir Dar Airport since March 1.

“What Ethiopia and the UAE have done is direct aggression against Sudan and won’t be met with silence,” Abdelwahab said. Sudanese Foreign Minister Mohieddin Salem added that the country is ready to “enter into an open confrontation” with Ethiopia “if it becomes necessary.” And following the latest attack on Khartoum airport on Monday, Sudan recalled Ethiopia’s ambassador.

Khartoum has long accused Addis Ababa and Abu Dhabi of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which continue to wage a bloody civil war against Sudan’s military. On Tuesday, Ethiopia rejected Sudan’s claims as “baseless” and instead blamed its neighbor of backing “mercenaries” from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, whose armed wing fought against Ethiopia’s government from 2020 to 2022. The United Arab Emirates also denied on Tuesday any involvement in the drone strikes.

Odds and Ends

The Colombian singer Shakira performed her biggest show ever at Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana Palace on Saturday, with an estimated audience of some 2 million people. The Colombian singer used the iconic stage to showcase some of her greatest hits, such as “Hips Don’t Lie” and “Waka Waka,” alongside several Brazilian stars. Other artists have drawn massive crowds on Rio’s beachfront in recent years, including Madonna and Lady Gaga. And although these concerts are free, local officials estimate that hotel, restaurant, transport, and retail purchases related to Shakira’s concert generated more than $160 million for Brazil’s economy.