‘What Encourages Aggressors is Weakness and Impunity’ – Ukraine’s Deputy FM on Peace, Transatlantic Unity, And Beyond
“If aggression goes unpunished, it will happen again,” Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister said as she touched on war accountability and the shifting world order.
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Mariana Betsa is Ukraine’s deputy minister of foreign affairs. Her work focuses in particular on the legal aftermath of the war and its consequences.
At a time when the international order is faltering, the key question is whether the institutions required to address this are still capable of taking action.
The interview took place on March 4 at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Kyiv.
Stefan Schocher: There is much talk of a “just peace” for Ukraine. What does that mean to you?
Mariana Betsa: That is a very valid question. Firstly, a ‘just peace’ means that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are recognized and respected. Secondly, it means that all Russian war criminals, including the political and military leadership, are brought to justice. And thirdly, of course, it concerns our captured citizens – civilians, children who have been abducted and deported, and prisoners of war.
We must also bear in mind that it all began in 2014 with Russia’s temporary occupation of Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine. Then, in February 2022, came the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, which has now been ongoing for over four years. Feb. 24 is a somber anniversary. The UN General Assembly resolution on precisely this issue, adopted last week in New York, focused primarily on a ceasefire as a prerequisite for a peaceful solution.
Iranian forces shot down a US A-10 Thunderbolt II over the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, marking the second US aircraft lost to enemy fire in a single day.
This resolution was also adopted against a completely new geopolitical backdrop.
There are many geopolitical developments. This time, we have opted for a very short, concise and focused resolution that centers on the ceasefire – a complete and unconditional ceasefire. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire a long time ago. Ukraine is not an obstacle to peace. We are demonstrating that we are committed, that we are acting constructively.
But so far, Russia has not taken a single step. What is more, since November, Russia has intensified its attacks on the energy grid, on critical infrastructure, residential buildings, hospitals and schools, in order to freeze the Ukrainians out.
This is not a regional war; it is not a European war.
Russia’s strategy is absolutely clear: to destroy Ukraine as a country, to destroy Ukraine as a nation, or to subjugate Ukraine. Since Russia cannot subjugate Ukraine, it is trying to destroy it. Russia’s aim was to make life unbearable for Ukrainians. But Russia has miscalculated.
Another of Russia’s aims is to destroy unity among partners. It is crucial for us that we maintain unity with our European partners, unity among European partners and transatlantic unity.
However, this is widely called into question.
This is not a regional war; it is not a European war. The outcome of this war in Ukraine will therefore also determine the fate of the democratic community as a whole across the globe.
At its core, it is about sovereignty and territorial integrity. No one can simply say: “Oh, that’s none of our business; it’s their own country.” It is about whether the fundamental principle of the UN Charter, which provides for territorial integrity and the non-use of force, can be upheld.
The fact that you point out directly that this war did not begin in 2022 but in 2014 also illustrates, on the other hand, the seemingly deep-seated urge to cling to hopes that do not stand up to current reality. Do you see a risk that this – as was the case after 2014 – might prevail once again?
I hope not. Now, partners are definitely seeing the extent of Russia’s war crimes. In 2014, the reaction of many partners was definitely not very strong. I think they thought that Russia might change. But Russia will not change. For Russia, it is not about Ukraine; it is not about territory. Russia is erasing our identity. It is erasing the identity of our children, who are being abducted and deported. It is erasing the identity of our people in the temporarily occupied territories.
I think that many partners have learned their lesson over these 13 years. Russia will only stop if we stop Russia – through joint efforts, through political isolation and strengthened sanctions: on the shadow fleet, through a price cap on oil, and on Russian banks.
You have emphasized the importance of unity with and amongst partners. How do you interpret the result of the vote at the UN on your resolution? The US abstained.
I would say that this was a major diplomatic success for Ukraine. We have succeeded in mobilizing international partners, including countries from the Global South.
Russia is not winning; Russia has achieved nothing.
The General Assembly is sending a clear message that a ceasefire is the first step. This applies to every conflict: You start with a ceasefire, confidence-building measures, monitoring of the ceasefire, and then other issues follow. The resolution clearly calls for an immediate, complete and unconditional ceasefire, as well as a full exchange of prisoners of war, the release of all unlawfully detained persons and the return of all internees and civilians who have been forcibly displaced or deported, including children.
Twelve states voted with Russia and 107 with Ukraine. Russia is not winning; Russia has achieved nothing. Neither politically nor militarily. And it is not in a position to do so either.
But what does the result say about this transatlantic unity?
I wouldn’t view the result through that lens. We have the support of the United States. We are grateful to President Trump for his efforts to bring peace closer. It is not an easy process; we understand that.
The Canadian Prime Minister delivered a truly remarkable speech in Davos, in which he described the world order as we know it as a thing of the past and stated that the task now is to shape the future. How much of these old structures is still of any use?
Russia has destroyed the existing order as we know it. Russia commits war crimes and crimes against humanity on an industrial scale every single day. This is not just aggression, but also genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. And yes, what Russia actually wants to achieve is to demonstrate the irrelevance of all these institutions. And this despite the fact that it is actively involved in the UN and the OSCE.
But we must show Russia that this will not work. These institutions are not ideal. They may not be responding ideally to the current war, but they are still functioning and are effective in many areas. And Russia is isolated within these organizations. We must use these organizations to our advantage – to bring about justice.
I would like to highlight three key areas in the multilateral forums: The political isolation of Russia, the documentation of Russia’s crimes, and humanitarian support for the people of Ukraine.
Attention has now been diverted to the Middle East. How dangerous is this for Ukraine?
We are, of course, monitoring and assessing the situation to see how it will develop and what impact it might have. It is difficult to say at present. We support the Iranian people, but not the Iranian regime.
And, of course, we are also prepared to share our expertise, particularly in the field of drone technology and similar areas.
When it comes to security guarantees in connection with Ukraine. How important is accountability for war crimes as a security guarantee? The guarantee that a perpetrator cannot get away with it unpunished?
The issue of accountability is something without which we will never have a just peace, nor will we be able to restore justice. We can rebuild the country, we can restore the whole country, we can fully rebuild towns and villages, but we will never be able to bring the people back.
How many children have had limbs amputated? 20,000 Ukrainian children have been deported by Russia in violation of international law. How many children have been Russified, indoctrinated, militarised? In the temporarily occupied territories, Russia is militarizing our boys, who are rounded up at the age of 18 and sent to the front. All the orphans who have been illegally adopted. These are not adoptions. This is the largest state-sponsored abduction operation.
It is precisely because of this last point that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants. But this seems to be an area where there are no automatic processes.
That is precisely why the justice process was established. The ICC’s first arrest warrants were issued against high-ranking Russian officials for exactly this reason. They were intended to be effective; they were intended to be enforced.
If aggression goes unpunished, it will happen again.
Justice is a guarantee of security. It is about ensuring that war crimes are punished. Whilst Russian officials and military personnel are held individually criminally accountable, the Russian Federation as a state bears responsibility under international law. To address this issue, the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine – an international judicial body – has been established to hold those responsible for the crime of aggression against Ukraine to account.
What is at stake here – internationally and for Ukraine?
The establishment of the special tribunal is not just about Ukraine. It is about defending the rules-based international order and reaffirming that no head of state is above the law.
Europe knows from its own history: If aggression goes unpunished, it will happen again. What encourages aggressors is weakness and impunity. And that is why Russia was able to go so far – because it was not held to account. Justice must be done.
