Armenians head to the polls on June 7 in a high-stakes election that could determine whether the country continues Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western shift or remains tied to Russia’s orbit. Moscow has increased pressure through economic threats and political rhetoric, while supporters of
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Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on 7 June. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is hoping that the vote will bolster his pro-Western course. At the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union in Kazakhstan, which Pashinyan did not attend, Vladimir Putin threatened to suspend economic cooperation with the country. Russia has already imposed import bans on certain Armenian goods.
The Moscow Times analyses Russia’s influence on the elections (Russia):
“With its propaganda and ultimatums, Russia itself has turned these elections into a referendum on Armenia’s European integration. ... After the fiascos in Moldova and Hungary, the Kremlin cannot afford another defeat. It’s obvious to everyone that Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that Nikol Pashinyan does not remain in office as prime minister, or at least does not secure a mandate with a clear majority. Consequently, not only are gloomy predictions about Armenia’s economic and cultural collapse should it adopt a pro-European course burgeoning, but the very survival of its statehood is also being called into question.”
Brussels more attractive
On the laziar.com blog, political scientist Laurențiu Pleșca says Putin’s tone towards Armenia is telling (Moldova):
“This is not the voice of a leader who is convinced of the appeal of his own project. It is one of someone who knows he can no longer convince, with intimidation being the only option left open to him. If the Eurasian Economic Union had really been an attractive proposition, Armenia would not have looked to Brussels. If the Collective Security Treaty Organisation were a genuine alliance, Yerevan would not have put its participation on hold. If the partnership with Moscow had brought prosperity to the region, the discussion today would likely be a very different one.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed the number of casualties in Russia’s overnight assault, with 22 people killed and 130 injured, including two children. More than 70 missiles and over 650 drones were launched overnight, followed by nearly 100 more drone strikes throughout the day. He warned of every missile and drone being dependent on imported components, calling foreign suppliers complicit in the killings.
Acid test for Putin’s imperial ideology
Õhtuleht explains why Russia is taking the elections in Armenia so seriously (Estonia):
“The most compelling factor for Russia is Pashinyan’s apparent refusal to bow to Moscow, his personal jibes at Putin, and his efforts to seek alliances outside Russia’s oppressive grip. ... According to Moscow’s imperial logic, broadly defined by the concept of the ‘Russian World’ (Russki Mir), its constituent parts and peripheral regions have no right to self-determination. They are all Moscow’s property – and anyone who leaves the mafia-like communal coffers is either committing treason from within or the victim of a robbery from outside.”
Loss of benefits would be painful
A change of course would deal a severe economic blow to Armenia, Diena points out (Latvia):
“Thanks to its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, Yerevan receives Russian natural gas, petroleum products, rough diamonds and many other raw materials at below market prices. At the same time, a large number of Armenian citizens live and work in Russia – according to estimates as many as half a million. Their remittances account for at least 10 percent of Armenia’s GDP. If it shifts towards the EU, Armenia would automatically lose these and many other economic advantages. Moreover, at least for the time being, replacing certain supplies would not be possible even at market prices. Pessimistic estimates suggest that in this scenario Armenia’s GDP could drop by 30 to 40 percent.”
Baku’s carrot-and-stick tactics
Armenia’s borders with its neighbours to the west and east are still closed but could be opened following the election. This is a politically sensitive issue in the region, a commentary piece in T24 suggests (Turkey):
“The ambassador [of Azerbaijan to Turkey] stated that after the election Armenia would amend its constitution, following which the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agreement would be signed, ‘and then the borders between Armenia and Turkey, as well as between Armenia and Azerbaijan, will be opened.’ This statement caused outrage, because with it the ambassador had effectively dictated to Turkey when it should open its border. [...] If Turkey were to open the land border, Armenia’s dependence on Baku would diminish and Baku’s carrot-and-stick tactics would come to nothing. The suspicion that Azerbaijan is putting pressure on Ankara to keep the border closed is therefore hard to dismiss.”
Trump working against Moscow this time
La Stampa discusses Trump’s backing for Pashinyan (Italy):
“Until now, in elections in Eastern Europe, Trump has almost always sided with the staunchest pro-Moscow nationalists – Viktor Orbán in Hungary, the right-wing Călin Georgescu and George Simion in Romania, and pro-Kremlin groups in Moldova that have tried to import the slogan ‘Make Moldova Great Again’. But it’s different with Pashinyan. … For the first time, Trump is backing a prime minister who, after years of dependence on Russia, is trying to lead Armenia into the EU. However, Trump hasn’t suddenly become the president for EU enlargement; in this case, his interests just happen to coincide with a decline in Russian influence. Trump talks about peace, prosperity and access to Central Asia for US energy companies.”
Destined to be a Turkish province
The state-run agency RIA Novosti predicts Armenia’s downfall if it turns away from Russia (Russia):
