China’s economy grew 5 per cent year on year in the first quarter, beating market expectations despite the global impact of the US-Israel war in Iran, which analysts said indicates the country remains on track to meet its full-year growth target without the need for near-term stimulus.
The closely watched gross domestic product growth figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday, beat the 4.86 per cent forecast by economists polled by financial data provider Wind.
It also marked an acceleration from the 4.5 per cent recorded in the last three months of 2025, which was China’s weakest quarterly growth figure in three years.
“GDP came in stronger than expected, marking a very solid start to the year, and Beijing is unlikely to take immediate policy action,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered.
Ding said that while external uncertainties are rising and could weigh more heavily on the second quarter, policymakers are likely to emphasise flexibility and retain policy space rather than act immediately.
On monetary policy, he added that there is little need for an interest-rate cut in the near term, although authorities may lower the reserve requirement ratio to maintain ample liquidity.
