In High-Stakes Bluff, Putin Holds a Losing Hand

Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes do not bode well for the Kremlin leader. Thanks to Europe’s steady financial and military support for Kyiv, Russia is experiencing casualties unprecedented since World War II. Meanwhile, the US waivers in its historic transatlantic commitment.

Kyiv Post
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In High-Stakes Bluff, Putin Holds a Losing Hand

Change is afoot for Europe with a lame duck in Washington’s Pennsylvania Avenue and the peel of tolling bells resonating up to the door of a Downing Street resident.

Two leaders, two men, for various reasons, in deep political trouble. Not for the first time, an American president has been humiliated by his actions in Iran. Donald Trump is famously, or probably infamously, not a reader but he could have done worse than cast his eyes over Jimmy Carter’s account of his doomed military foray to rescue US hostages in Teheran in 1980 in a military mission given the wildly optimistic Operation Eagle Claw. Misguided American optimism in its military targeting of Iran is nothing new. Meanwhile in Britain, a prime minister’s stint at Downing Street has come to an end and Andy Burnham is set to bring his own furniture into No 10.

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Such a state of affairs should see the gleeful rubbing of hands in Moscow but whatever emotions are being felt in the Russian capital glee is not one of them. A gray pall recently lingered over the Russian capital after a Ukraine drone strike. A Russian leader seems inept, a hostage to the very situation he himself has unleashed.

In contrast President Volodymyr Zelensky may have an extra spring in his step. Ukraine, with sophisticated domestic drones and missiles, has stalled the invasion.

For the Russians, the dead and wounded have hit about 30,000 a month. Casualties of about a 1,000 a day will not for long be acceptable even in a country where news of the war is heavily censored. Drone strikes launched from inside Ukraine have penetrated deep into Russia. A grim milestone has been reached. Putin’s 2022 “special military operation,” which was supposed to bring a swift victory, has now lasted longer than the First World War. The bloodshed that started in August 1914 was meant to be over by Christmas. You do not need to be a student of history to realize that it lasted much longer and led to the overthrow of a Russian leader.

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In Beijing they look on aghast. Putin, a key ally, is in a quagmire. Their own plans to attack Taiwan are being redrawn in light of the failings of Russia’s stumbling invasion.

It is worth noting the role of geography here. Ukraine and Russia share a land border. Easy to breach. Taiwan lies about 100 km off the Chinese coast. Landing PLA troops on the island will involve either an air drop or coastal landings. Both would come with huge casualties as Taiwan would do a “Ukraine” and deploy drones to scythe through an invasion force. Imagine if you will another scenario; if Ukraine had capitulated, China would, at the very least, be emboldened. As it is, military plans have had to be redrawn in Beijing.

Putin may decide to double down and broaden the scope of conflict.

But any feelings of optimism in Kyiv must be tempered. Putin is facing a strategic and personal defeat. He has dismissed Zelensky’s offer of peace talks with an arrogance that is not justified by the situation in the field.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibilities that Putin may decide to broaden the scope of conflict. In poker this is called doubling down. With a weak hand, raise the stakes. Bluff your way out of trouble. Remember, this is a Russian leader who has threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West. He could try to rally the Russian people behind him by provoking a NATO military response. He would then repeat his discredited mantra that NATO all along had planned to attack Russia and that he alone is able to protect the Motherland.

A limited version of this is already taking place. European security, intelligence and military chiefs openly discuss how increasing acts of sabotage are being directed from Moscow as its struggles mount in Ukraine. Russia is already embracing an aggressive belligerence.

NATO airspace is constantly being violated by Russian drones and fighter jets. GPS interference disrupting civilian aviation and maritime navigation, are a hallmark of Russia’s erratic behavior. Poland’s rail network, a crucial component of the supply chain to Ukraine, has been sabotaged. Undersea pipelines and internet cables in the Baltic have been cut. Norway’s land border with Russia, the North Sea and North Atlantic are witnessing the Russian military activity.

The outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s words should not be discounted. Western intelligence, he said, is warning that Russia could attack a NATO country before the next World Cup in 2030.

Against this backdrop the European Union has just opened formal membership talks with Ukraine. This comes as Washington openly waivers in its commitment to Europe’s defense.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has launched a six-month review of the presence of US forces in Europe. 

He said that some allies had been “free-riding.” This petty sentiment shows how much of a debt Europe owes to Ukraine. Kyiv’s defiance, albeit at huge cost, has shown that Europe is not dependent on Washington for its survival.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily those of the Kyiv Post.

Tom Clifford

Tom Clifford is a veteran Irish journalist who has worked in the Far East.

Original Source

Kyiv Post

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