Where do reported US-Iran ‘negotiations’ leave Israel?

Israeli analysts have described a sense of disappointment and confusion in the country after United States President Donald Trump’s claim that negotiations with Iran to wind down the war would continue.

Trump’s comments come despite his threats to launch a wave of strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, and denials from Iran that any negotiations are taking place.

Throughout the war, Israeli leaders have framed themselves as being at the forefront of the fight against Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently boasting of having convinced the US to join what he has repeatedly framed as an existential threat posed to Israel by Iran.

In a video statement released on Monday after Trump’s comments, Netanyahu said that the US president believed that it was possible to leverage “the mighty achievements obtained by [the Israeli military] and the US military to realise the goals of the war in an agreement … that will safeguard our vital interests”.

“In parallel, we continue to attack, both in Iran and Lebanon,” the prime minister added. “We are methodically dismantling the missile programme and the nuclear programme, and continue to hit Hezbollah hard.”

Despite that framing, many in Israel are acutely aware that the war was presented to the Israeli people at the outset as one that would likely overthrow the Iranian government and end the threat from the country. With the Islamic Republic still standing and deadly Iranian attacks hitting Israel in the last few days, talk of a negotiated end to the conflict is unsettling to many.

Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas told Al Jazeera that, if Trump has pushed for negotiations over Netanyahu’s objections, it may be a sign that the US president is aware that “Netanyahu may have duped [Trump] on how quick and resounding a victory would be, and how viable regime change is”.

Political scientist Ori Goldberg said that Israel did not appear to have been consulted about negotiations beforehand, a stark rejection of Netanyahu’s efforts in convincing the US to entrench itself further in the war.

“Is it a defeat for Netanyahu? Hell, yes!” he told Al Jazeera from outside Tel Aviv. “It’s Trump essentially ditching Israel. For now, at least, we’ll still be able to destroy Lebanon and starve Gaza, but any idea that we’re a serious player that the US or any state would want to talk with has gone. Nobody wants to talk to us.”

Objectives achieved?

Netanyahu and his allies on Israel’s far right have placed great store in the support of the US president, whose 2024 US presidential election victory was celebrated by the Israeli prime minister and framed as marking a new period of closer Israel-US partnership.

However, Trump’s unpredictable behaviour, as well as the huge power imbalance between the two countries, has led to various periods of concern, such as when the US imposed a ceasefire on Israel in Gaza in late 2025, as well as ordering the cessation of its previous attacks on Iran in June 2025.

But given the outsized role of the US in Israeli politics, some analysts have suggested that even if it is true that Israel has been sidelined in any current negotiations, that does not negate the gains it has achieved in its fight against Iran.

“I don’t think there was any expectation that Israel would be involved in diplomatic efforts to end the war. Israel is no longer a country that does diplomacy,” Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flashenberg said from Berlin. “[But] I’m doubtful that Netanyahu was ever serious about regime change. If he was, he wouldn’t have sabotaged or even killed so many people inside the regime that could have brought that about.”

“If you assume, instead, that this was about downgrading Iran’s military capabilities, then he’s done that, and he’s done it in such a way that’s going to ensure the US’s long-term commitment to making sure it remains downgraded.”