Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranOn March 17, Israel announced — and Tehran later confirmed — the killing of Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. If eliminating Ali Khamenei on the opening day of the U.S.-Israeli offensive struck down the regime’s supreme leader, Larijani’s death removes its supreme coordinator. A longtime fixture in the regime, Larijani appears to have been serving as the regime’s majordomo in recent months — and especially since Khamenei’s death on Feb. 28. Larijani helmed the Supreme National Security Council in the aftermath of the June 2025 war, oversaw the violent crackdown against protesters in January, and coordinated Iran’s response to ongoing hostilities. That influence — cutting across the government’s political, diplomatic, and security spheres — was all the more significant as the system tries to retain cohesion despite the loss of senior military commanders and the still largely enigmatic role of Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son and successor. “The graveyards are full of indispensable men,” the saying goes, and neither Khamenei nor Larijani’s demise indicates a vacuum at the top. Yet, as the losses mount, the regime’s attempts to keep a unified front in wartime could be challenged by internal fractures born of increasing vacancies and competing interests.Ali Larijani during a 2023 meeting at the Iranian Parliament. Image: Hamed Malekpour via Wikimedia CommonsRussiaOver the last two weeks, the Russo-Ukrainian War and the war in Iran have become increasingly interconnected. Fears of oil shortages due to the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a spike in oil prices. Higher oil prices — combined with the U.S. government’s decision to waive sanctions on Russian oil sales for several weeks
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