But this is not the only war that Trump is fighting this month. Last week, Trump’s trade department began a series of investigations over what it called “unfair” trade practices by the rest of the world as a prelude to another round of tariffs, after the earlier ones were struck down by the Supreme Court. These latest ones, though, are sticky, and less prone to legal challenges. Which means that Trump’s war on trade could continue indefinitely.
But this is not the only war that Trump is fighting this month. Last week, Trump’s trade department began a seriesof investigations over what it called “unfair” trade practices by the rest of the world as a prelude to another round of tariffs, after the earlier ones were struck down by the Supreme Court. These latest ones, though, are sticky, and less prone to legal challenges. Which means that Trump’s war on trade could continue indefinitely.
“We’re likely to get right back where we started,” said Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore and an expert on arcane areas of U.S. trade law. “We’re not at plan C. We are back to plan A.”
What the Trump administration has done—for those distracted by the mini-war in Venezuela, or the threats to take over Cuba, or the ongoing conflict in Iran—is reignite the global trade war that it started years ago, using the very same tools.
Specifically, the administration is turning to Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, which was later amended twice. It’s an expansive delegation of trade authority to the executive branch, and it is an authority that Trump relied on during his first term for China tariffs. Those were maintained by President Joe Biden, but now there is scaffolding on top.
“Congress has clearly delegated too much authority to the president in general,” Elms said, referring to the series of bills since 1934 that have given the White House greater say over trade than Congress. “But they delegated thinking a president would be rational and reasonable.”
The reason that the Trump administration is reaching for other tools is because the Supreme Court ruled in February that the administration’s use of a Carter-era bill to apply tariffs on nearly every other country in the world was unlawful. The first workaround, a recourse to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, has both an expiration date and the chance of congressional oversight. Those tariffs expire in July, which explains the Trump administration’s hustle. The section of the law that the administration is now aiming to rely on is longer-lasting, more open-ended, and doesn’t have any built-in congressional oversight. Unlike the Section 122 tariffs of that same 1974 law, Section 301 tariffs are a free pass, as it were. The tariffs that Trump turned to in February would need a House and Senate vote to continue come July 24; the new ones do not.
“Section 301 could be forever. That is, to my mind, what makes it so dangerous,” Elms said.
In the first Trump administration, there was a process to trade policy. It was overseen by Robert Lighthizer, a man who had been involved in trade for decades—and who was a protectionist but also a perfectionist. But in the second term, the Trump trade team has been less meticulous. The rollout of what Trump called his “reciprocal” tariffs, for instance, last April, was met with universal derision not just because the United States levied import duties on penguins, but also because the math behind the new tariff schedules was wrong.
The latest U.S. trade actions take aim at two separate things. One, which is being applied to 16 economies (including all of the United States’ major trading partners), is “discriminatory” behavior by countries—in this case, because they make things and sell them overseas. The other, targeting 60 economies, is aimed at highlighting the alleged use of forced labor to make overseas labor cheaper and thus disadvantage U.S. firms.
A big problem with Trump’s trade wars, beyond not being productive, is that they alienate U.S. allies. This week, Trump demanded help from allies in his war with Iran, and he was met with crickets.
But there is another reason to worry about Trump’s ongoing trade war, especially at a time when a war that he started has raised fuel prices in the United States and also shattered economies across Asia. And that reason is that it is likely to further damage the U.S. economy.
The U.S. economy was the envy of the worldin 2024. But last week, the U.S. Commerce Department downgraded its estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year. The Trump administration has now upped the ante on 16 major trade partners while Iran continues to maintain a choke hold on the world’s economic lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas normally passes.
The top White House economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, saidon Tuesday that price increases for consumers are “really the last of our concerns right now.” Whether it’s lobbing missiles at Iran or trade investigations at allies, the Trump administration seems to be going out of its way to lose the affordability fight.
