The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the center of the world’s attention, as it remains unclear whether it is actually open to ships. It appeared that Iran had allowed ships to transit the Strait late last week, in the wake of a ceasefire, talks with the US, and also an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
However, there was a lack of clarity on August 18 on whether the Iranians were actually letting ships through. Some ships had moved to exit the Strait on April 16 and 17. Now Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to be angry at Iran’s foreign minister for saying the Strait is open. This could reveal a crack in the regime facade.
The BBC noted on April 17 that “Iran’s foreign minister has said that the strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels, reinforcing hopes for an eventual end to the war in the Middle East and sending oil prices tumbling despite analysts’ warnings that there will be no immediate widespread resumption of passage through the vital waterway.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that “in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.”
However, there appears to be pushback in Iran. Iran had wanted a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, Iran is also angry that the US is still blockading Iran. There appears to be controversy over aspects of the deal between the US and Iran that is being negotiated in Pakistan.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has warned that “the strait of Hormuz will not remain open” if the US blockade continues. He said things will not be determined on social media.
Iran’s Tasnim News, considered close to the IRGC, posted a series of posts on X slamming Iran’s foreign minister. This shows that in the wake of the Iran war, there are not only differences within Iran, but the regime is willing to make them public.
Tasnim disputes Araghchi on X/Twitter
In some ways, this could be “good cop-bad cop,” but it appears more genuine than in the past. In the past, Iran would pretend that its hardliners were holding back “moderates” from various deals, and the West was expected to appease the “moderates” to get a deal.
Tasnim wrote on April 17, “Bad and Incomplete Tweet by Araghchi and Incorrect Ambiguity-Creation Regarding the Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” The IRGC-linked media noted that Araghchi’s tweet was posted just after the ceasefire in Lebanon began.
“This tweet by Araghchi, which was published without the necessary and sufficient explanations, created various ambiguities regarding the conditions for passage, details, and mechanisms of passage, and led to a great deal of criticism. While various conditions have been considered for this matter, one of the most important among them is the complete oversight by Iran's armed forces over the passage of ships, and this passage shall be deemed null and void in the event of the continuation of the claimed naval blockade,” Tasnim noted.
It went on to argue that “publishing this tweet, without any verbal explanation or at least sufficient written explanations, constitutes a complete lack of tact in communication. It is obvious that the Foreign Ministry itself must either reconsider this type of communication or the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council must fulfill its duty. And while providing proper notifications in its own domain, it should create a more cohesive and better mechanism for notifications from some institutions, including the Foreign Ministry, and control them.”
Clearly, the IRGC is trying to take back control of the talks in Pakistan. It is willing to make the regime look divided to achieve its goals.
“The tweets that officials publish - even if they write them in English - are not seen only by foreign officials! The great nation of Iran, too, is fully monitoring the scene in accordance with its revolutionary duty. Any attempt to create anxiety or despair among this divinely inspired nation constitutes political disobedience and disruption of national unity,” Tasnim noted.
Al-Ain media in the UAE on April 18 noted that “Iran announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz by imposing strict restrictions on navigation through it, in a move that is bringing turmoil back to the markets… News of the possible resumption of Strait crossings boosted stock markets on Friday and sparked optimism from Washington. The International Energy Agency says the closure of the strait has led to the largest ever supply loss, exceeding 10 million barrels of oil per day and a 20% reduction in global liquefied natural gas supplies.”
Al-Ain noted that “the Strait has not returned to its original state. Today, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said that the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal despite the ceasefire in the war, and urged Tehran to allow the full resumption of global shipping traffic.”
America’s head of CENTOM also said: “We are at a crucial diplomatic moment with a ceasefire in place... but we have not yet restored normal shipping traffic through the strait.”
The dispute between the IRGC and the foreign minister makes it even harder to deal with Iran. Iran used to make it seem the regime was opaque in order to confound the US and the West. Now the regime is actually opening up, fighting with itself. It remains to be seen how the White House will deal with this chaos.