ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Ukrainian forces are conducting a strike campaign to deny Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel across the Kerch Strait.
  • Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and transport infrastructure are already disrupting Russian logistics, straining energy supplies, and worsening fuel shortages across occupied Crimea.
  • The Kerch Strait strikes are part of an ongoing systematic Ukrainian campaign to deny Russian forces the use of the main ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to occupied Crimea via occupied southern Ukraine. 
  • Russian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area, but this advance is not likely to be recent.
  • Russian forces launched four missiles and 105 drones at Ukraine overnight.

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