ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2026

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian frigate and other Russian warships during March 1 to 2 overnight strikes against the Russian naval base in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai.
  • Russia is blaming Ukraine for a strike on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, accusing Ukraine of “escalating” the war.
  • The Kremlin is continuing its reflexive control campaign that aims to influence French and British nuclear strategy and Coalition of the Willing decision-making
  • Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians.
  • Russian forces are intensifying their use of drones, including Shaheds, at both the tactical and operational levels as part of their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction. Russian forces marginally advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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