Mali’s ruling junta has paid nearly $1 billion to Russian mercenaries since 2021 in an effort to stop the spread of Islamic terrorists and Tuareg rebels. However, analysts say it’s unclear what the country has gotten for its money.
Years of Russian brutality, including the 2023 Moura massacre of 300 Fulani men, have undermined public support for the government in the north and central regions of the country. The Russian-backed attacks on Kidal in 2023 effectively ended the 2015 peace agreement with the Tuaregs and led to late April’s retreat from that same town after the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces to retake it.
FLA-JNIM collaboration is a strategic shift that has put the government and its Russian supporters at a strategic disadvantage, according to analysts at the Robert Lansing Institute for Global and Democratic Studies.
“By combining local legitimacy with transnational networks, these groups have effectively outmaneuvered both Malian forces and their Russian partners,” the Lansing Institute wrote recently.
Africa Corps, like its predecessor, the Wagner Group, costs Mali at least $10 million per month even as terror groups have expanded their footprint in the country. The junta pays for Africa Corps in cash rather than resources as the Central African Republic has done.
“It’s a big weight for the Malian economy, but it’s a guarantee for the junta to stay in power and rob the country,” analyst Wassim Nasr with the Soufan Center told ADF in an interview. “Their priority is to preserve the regime.”
The junta invited the Wagner Group into Mali after it expelled troops with France’s Operation Barkhane counterterrorism operation and the United Nations’ peacekeeping mission known as MINUSMA. The junta promised to restore order that it claimed the country’s democratically elected government had failed to achieve.
Wagner’s presence in the country ranged from 1,000 mercenaries early on to as many as 2,500 in 2024 as the junta pressed ahead with its plan to bring Mali’s northern regions under its control. Each Wagner fighter cost Mali $10,000 per month, according to analysts.
Originally hired to train the Malian military in counterterrorism, Wagner fighters frequently joined Malian soldiers on missions where they deployed brutal tactics, including torture, sexual assault and summary executions, against the Malian population.
A major shift in the use of mercenaries began in late July 2024 when the FLA ambushed a convoy of Malian and Wagner forces on its way to attack the Tuareg community of Tinzouatin on the Algerian border.
The ambush killed dozens of soldiers and Russian mercenaries and sent the convoy fleeing into JNIM territory, where it was attacked again. Soon after that, Wagner declared its mission in Mali over and handed its operations to Africa Corps, a change that was largely symbolic because many Africa Corps fighters came from Wagner.
As a unit of the Russian Defense Ministry, Africa Corps has received a variety of Russian weaponry, including Spartak and KamAZ-4385 vehicles and T-72B3M tanks, according to images published by local TV channel Cap Mali+.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strained its resources and manpower, limiting the number of Africa Corps fighters it can dedicate to Africa, according to the Lansing Institute. That means Africa Corps remains too small to be deployed across a country as large as Mali.
“The consequences of this failure are already visible,” the Lansing Institute wrote.
Africa Corps’ tactics have proved to be significantly different than those used by Wagner. Africa Corps fighters are more likely to remain close to their base next to Bamako’s international airport rather than joining the Malian military in the field — a strategy that also keeps it close to the ruling junta.
“Wagner was more adventurous,” Nasr told ADF. “Africa Corps still goes out, but they are less confident.”
The taking of Kidal in November 2023 was Wagner’s biggest achievement during its time in Mali, Nasr said. But that achievement unraveled during the joint JNIM-FLA attack on Kidal at the end of April.
The attack tested Africa Corps’ ability to hold territory that Wagner had helped the Malian military claim. JNIM and FLA fighters took Malian soldiers prisoner but let the Africa Corps forces leave the community while the citizenry looked on.
Justyna Gudzowska, executive director of The Sentry, a Washington-based research organization, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the loss of Kidal is “the most consequential battlefield setback Russia’s African project has suffered.”
“It is a major reputational and political blow,” Gudzowska said.
