Peru’s Photo-Finish Election

The presidential race could hinge on just a few thousand votes.

Foreign Policy
75
8 мин чтения
0 просмотров
Peru’s Photo-Finish Election

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief.

The highlights this week: Peru awaits results for its presidential election, acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez visits India and Turkey, and the World Cup kicks off in Mexico City.


Peru’s presidential runoff on June 7 was so close—and vote counting so slow—that it could be weeks before the results are fully confirmed. As of Thursday afternoon local time, with 98.2 percent of ballots counted, fewer than 1,000 votes separated right-wing Keiko Fujimori from her left-wing opponent, Roberto Sánchez.

Both candidates are former lawmakers, but while Fujimori rose to national prominence by defending the legacy of her father—former President Alberto Fujimori—Sánchez hails from the party of former President Pedro Castillo, elected in 2021. Fujimori centered her campaign on law and order, while Sánchez’s focused more on addressing economic inequality.

The down-to-the-wire vote has put Peruvians on edge, wondering not only whom their president will be but also whether the winner can govern effectively in a country that has forced out six of its nine leaders in a decade.

Whether the losing candidate accepts the result will offer an early indication of how combative Peru’s opposition will be under a new administration. By Thursday, both campaigns had alleged some ballot irregularities and called for investigation.

On Wednesday, Peruvian analysts noted that the remaining uncounted votes appeared to favor Fujimori. Though overseas votes are also breaking heavily for Fujimori, those cast within Peru seem to favor Sánchez.

If Fujimori wins, Peru will become the latest Latin American country to swing to the right in a presidential election. But unlike the decisive victory of Javier Milei in Argentina, for example, Fujimori’s success would reflect a deeply divided electorate. Notably, Fujimori moderated her rhetoric ahead of the first-round election when faced with a candidate further to the right.

Sánchez’s strong performance offers more evidence that Peruvians are skeptical of right-wing leaders. Sánchez courted centrist voters in recent weeks, painting himself as an institutionalist. In doing so, he implicitly distanced himself from his ally Castillo, who was removed from office in 2022 after attempting to dissolve the legislature and rule by decree.

Peru’s next president—whomever it is—will grapple with a congress divided among left, right, and centrist blocs. The narrow presidential result suggests a weak mandate for the victor, but institutional changes may strengthen the next administration’s prospects for survival.

On July 28, Peru will restore a bicameral legislature after three decades of unicameralism. Under the new system, impeaching a president will be a more cumbersome process, requiring approval from both chambers.

Peru’s election could foreshadow developments elsewhere in the region. Colombia will hold its own presidential runoff on June 21. There, a right-wing candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, leads the polls and has staked out a more radical position than Fujimori, pledging to slash 40 percent of government spending and carry out mass detentions of suspected criminals.

Though their styles differ, de la Espriella and Fujimori could soon be the newest stars in a growing regional constellation of right-wing leaders.


Tuesday, June 16, to Wednesday, June 17: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attends the G-7 summit in France.

Mexico and the United States hold a second round of negotiations as part of the review of their trade deal with Canada.

Sunday, June 21: Colombia holds a presidential runoff election.

Monday, June 22: The Organization of American States begins a regular session of its General Assembly in Panama City.


Artists perform during the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Cup ahead of the match between Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City.

Artists perform during the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Cup ahead of the match between Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City.

Artists perform during the opening ceremony of the 2026 World Cup ahead of the match between Mexico and South Africa in Mexico City on June 11.Yuri Cortez/AFP via Getty Images

World Cup kicks off. The world’s biggest sporting event opened on Thursday in Mexico City, beginning with a match between Mexico and South Africa. The run-up to the tournament—co-hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States—was fraught with concerns about restrictive U.S. immigration policies inhibiting fans, players, and referees from entering the country.

Against that backdrop, Mexican officials played up their country’s openness to all nationalities; Mexico has fewer visitor visa requirements than its co-hosts. Due to its tolerant fan atmosphere and strong soccer culture, Mexico could emerge as a soft-power winner from the tournament, several experts told Foreign Policy.

Fans’ experience off the field is “fundamental” for how each World Cup is cemented in international memory, said Adriano de Freixo, an international relations scholar at Federal Fluminense University in Brazil.

However, fans visiting Mexico City may also encounter widespread demonstrations over labor disputes and disappeared persons linked to cartel violence. Mexico City leader Clara Brugada said this week that protests and soccer matches can coexist in a democratic city.

For more on Mexico’s soft-power potential, read my full analysis here.

Brazil’s yuan bond. Brazil plans to announce its first sovereign bond denominated in Chinese yuan this month, Reuters reported last Friday, citing unnamed sources. Brazil’s Finance Ministry declined to comment. The move aligns with Brazil’s long-term strategy of diversifying trade and financial relationships beyond the U.S. dollar.

Proponents of such diversification argue that transacting in multiple currencies can reduce Brazil’s exposure to dollar-driven financial shocks and shield it from potential future sanctions.

Brazil already issues government bonds in dollars and euros, having raised some $4.5 billion in dollar-denominated bonds in February and the equivalent of roughly $5.9 billion through euro-denominated bond sales in April. Most of its sovereign debt is denominated in Brazilian real.

Argentine rock star dies. This week, Argentines are remembering Carlos “Indio” Solari, whose concerts drew tens of thousands of fans who would camp out for days in low-tech, alt-rock-infused celebrations. Though relatively unknown outside of Argentina and Uruguay, Solari’s final show in 2017 attracted an estimated 400,000 people. He died last Friday at age 77.

Solari’s lyrics became rallying cries for political activists over the years. His “cryptic yet working-class poetic style is very Argentine” and shows how musical traditions can resist globalization, sociologist Pablo Alabarces told the Guardian.

Milei rejected a request to hold a wake for Solari in the country’s congress building; it was held in the working-class suburbs of Buenos Aires instead, attracting tens of thousands of mourners.


Which country is in the same World Cup group as Mexico and South Africa?

The fourth member of Group A is the Czech Republic.


  • There Are Only Four Great Powers by Brendan Simms
  • Can the State Department Make Europe Great Again? by Sam Skove
  • The Madman Strikes Back by Daniel W. Drezner

  • Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in front of a row of alternating Venezuelan and Indian flags in New Delhi.

    Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in front of a row of alternating Venezuelan and Indian flags in New Delhi.

    Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on June 4.Arun Sankar/AFP via Getty Images

    Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez returned this week from a four-day visit to India, followed by a stopover in Turkey. It was her farthest foreign trip since assuming the presidency after the U.S. capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January.

    The trip highlights Rodríguez’s efforts to cultivate international ties beyond her administration’s close relations with the United States—but it also shows how influential Washington is in shaping them.

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly announced Rodríguez’s India trip before an Indian or Venezuelan official did. Trump has suggested that India could buy more Venezuelan oil to wean itself off Russian supplies, even hinting that such purchases could be part of a U.S.-India trade deal.

    In New Delhi, Rodríguez met with representatives from Indian oil firms, underscoring a significant increase in Venezuelan imports in recent months. Venezuela has become India’s fourth-largest oil supplier, exporting amounts to India not seen since 2020, according to data firm Kpler.

    The surge comes amid U.S. pressure over India’s Russian oil imports as well as sharp reductions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Indian officials and firms have indicated that further purchases and even direct investment in Venezuela could be on the horizon, though such steps would require Venezuela to settle a $500 million debt to Indian oil company ONGC Videsh.

    Though Turkey has not comparably increased its Venezuelan oil imports, Rodríguez’s visit there appeared to affirm a steady partnership between Caracas and Ankara. Turkey was among the few countries to recognize Maduro’s 2024 election victory despite strong evidence suggesting he lost.

    Оригинальный источник

    Foreign Policy

    Поделиться статьей

    Похожие статьи

    The Gulf Arab States Need a Shield Built for Limited Trust
    📊Analysis & Opinion
    War on the Rocks

    The Gulf Arab States Need a Shield Built for Limited Trust

    Missiles, drones, and maritime disruptions do not stop at national borders. Gulf defense architecture still too often waits for national permission to act. The Gulf Cooperation Council has spent decades building defense institutions, diplomatic forums, and a language of indivisible Gulf security. Re

    около 3 часов назад17 min
    War and Circuses
    📊Analysis & Opinion
    Foreign Policy

    War and Circuses

    Trump juggles Iran, a World Cup, and a UFC cage fight.

    около 13 часов назад8 min
    Trump Backpedals on Planned Iran Strikes, Citing Deal Progress
    📊Analysis & Opinion
    Foreign Policy

    Trump Backpedals on Planned Iran Strikes, Citing Deal Progress

    But Iranian news reports that Tehran has not yet agreed to a deal.

    около 14 часов назад8 min
    Strike, Counterstrike, Repeat
    📊Analysis & Opinion
    War on the Rocks

    Strike, Counterstrike, Repeat

    Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***Iran Hostilities have increased notably in the last few days, effectively ending the U.S.-Irani

    около 14 часов назад2 min