Putin’s Death or Ukraine Military Victory Needed for Lasting Peace, Ex-Canadian General Says
Retired Canadian Lieutenant General Christopher Coates says a lasting peace in Ukraine is unlikely while Putin remains in power, arguing that only a Ukrainian military victory – or Putin’s death – could create durable conditions for stability. Speaking after a visit to Ukraine, he said Russia is a d
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A lasting peace in Ukraine is impossible while Russian President Vladimir Putin remains in power, according to retired Lieutenant General Christopher Coates, who says only a Ukrainian military victory – or Putin’s death – could create conditions for a durable settlement.
Coates, former commander of Canada’s Joint Operations Command, made the remarks after returning from Ukraine, where he visited as director of foreign policy at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Speaking to Ukrinform, Coates said he remains confident in Ukraine’s ability to continue resisting Russia, but warned that Moscow is fighting a fundamentally different kind of war.
“I am confident in Ukraine, but I have no illusions about the scale of the challenges,” he said, adding that Ukraine is operating with limited resources while Russia faces fewer constraints.
He argued that Russia’s key strategic weakness lies in the nature of the war itself.
Russia, he said, is “waging an illegitimate war,” adding that it is not fighting for survival but for political choice, spending vast resources for limited gains.
Coates said the Kremlin continues to rely on propaganda and media control to sustain domestic support, but warned such systems are inherently fragile over time.
“A system built on lies eventually begins to collapse from within,” he said, adding that prolonged losses in manpower and the economy will gradually erode Russia’s capacity to sustain the war.
Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Russia on Friday, striking major petrochemical and oil refining facilities in Tatarstan and Samara region. Fires broke out at multiple energy sites, including the Nizhnekamskneftekhim complex and Taneco refinery, while Russia claimed to have downed 231 drones overnight. The attacks disrupted Russia Day celebrations and temporarily shut regional airspace.
He described the current phase of the conflict as a “decision point” rather than a full strategic shift, adding that while Ukraine is gaining ground in some areas, the situation remains fragile.
“To me, the tide is turning in Ukraine’s favor,” he said, characterizing Russia as a declining power increasingly forced into what he called “horizontal escalation” – expanding pressure beyond the battlefield as its military gains stall.
At the same time, he stressed that Ukraine has not yet reached an irreversible advantage, warning that Russia continues to adapt and that small shifts in performance could still alter the trajectory of the war.
Drones as an advantage
Coates also highlighted Ukraine’s rapid technological adaptation, saying the war has fundamentally changed modern warfare. He pointed to the combination of scale and precision in Ukrainian drone operations, which he said is reshaping expectations about cost and effectiveness in military systems.
“Drones have not replaced traditional military power – they have added a new dimension to it,” he said, noting that the speed of innovation and counter-innovation is now occurring “almost in real time.”
He added that Ukraine’s experience exposes weaknesses in Western defense production models, which rely heavily on expensive, limited-output systems, while Ukraine has demonstrated the strategic impact of cheaper, mass-produced technologies.
Among the most important developments, he said, is Ukraine’s ability to adapt commercial technologies for military use, citing digital command systems such as DELTA.
On Canadian support, Coates said assistance has been “sincere, but often too politicized and disconnected from the realities of the battlefield,” arguing that delivery speed and practical needs have often been underestimated.
Possible victory
Turning to the question of peace, Coates was blunt about the conditions he believes are necessary for a lasting settlement.
“Putin’s death. That is the first necessary condition,” he said.
“Unfortunately, I find it very difficult to imagine a lasting peace as long as Putin remains in power. I see only a military victory for Ukraine as a more fundamental basis for such a peace,” Coates added.
He said territorial concessions would at best create only a temporary pause, warning that Russia’s imperial ambitions would likely resurface if its capacity is restored.
Coates also emphasized that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure play a strategic role, arguing they reduce Moscow’s revenues, force resource dispersion, and carry psychological and morale effects for both sides.
“These strikes alone will not decide the outcome of the war, but they are an important part of a broader strategy,” he said.
Julia is a Deputy Head of News and correspondent for Kyiv Post who has previously worked as a parliamentary editor, journalist, and news editor. She has specialized in covering the work of the Ukrainian parliament, government, and law enforcement agencies.
