Sven Biscop is a Belgian political scientist and strategist specialising in the foreign affairs and security of the EU and its relations with great powers. He is a director at the Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels and a professor at Ghent University. He is also a senior research fellow at Renmin University in Beijing, where he teaches in the summer. Biscop is the author of many books, including 2024’s This Is Not a New World Order: Europe Rediscovers Geopolitics, from Ukraine to Taiwan. His voice is one of the most prominent in the policy debate in Brussels. Note: this interview was updated last week before the most recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli ceasefire with Lebanon.
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As a European, what does the Iran war and how it has unfolded tell you about the world in 2026?
I’m not sure it heralds a new trend, but it shows that power politics is of all the ages. To have an impact doesn’t mean you have to play that game. It’s not that you only have impact if you start a war from time to time, but you do have to have military power so that your voice will be listened to. That’s one of the lessons for Europe from the Iran war. We’re totally sidelined because everybody knows we don’t have the military capacity to contribute much.
It also confirms the erratic, chaotic nature of [US President Donald] Trump’s administration because if you read his National Security Strategy, it says the exact opposite of what he’s doing now. It starts by saying the US is no longer going to interfere in other countries or governments – except Europe. It says they will no longer go for regime change. Now things are going in the opposite direction from what was announced just last December.
We now have the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Israel waging war on Lebanon; ceasefire talks in Pakistan failed. Where is this going?
The US and Israel started a war and they no longer control the ramifications. Europe has to stand firm: expanding the war will not solve any problems. The only thing to expand is the number of powers involved in the diplomatic negotiations. Only that can produce a serious arrangement with a chance of proving stable.
