US Oil Sanctions Relief on Russia May Last Beyond April 11, Analyst Warns, Raising Specter of ‘Behind-the-Scenes Deal’
In an interview with Kyiv Post, analyst Paul Goble warned the Trump administration’s temporary easing of Russian oil sanctions may not end on April 11, giving Moscow more money for war.
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WASHINGTON, DC – In an interview with Kyiv Post, American analyst Paul Goble raised alarm that the Trump administration’s temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil may not end on April 11, warning that even short-term relief could become difficult to reverse and give Moscow more money for its war in Ukraine.
“On a personal level, I’m utterly appalled. I think this was a terrible mistake,” Goble said. “The Russians are engaged in a brutal genocidal war in Ukraine. There’s no reason to lift sanctions. There are good reasons to increase them.”
The decision comes as the conflict involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz drives up energy concerns and pulls international attention toward the Middle East. But Goble argues that using that crisis to justify easing restrictions on Russia risks giving Moscow exactly what it wants: more revenue, less pressure, and a more distracted West.
Goble warns sanctions relief may not end on April 11
Washington has said the measure is temporary and will remain in effect until April 11.
The Trump administration has framed the step as a temporary market-stabilizing measure rather than a policy shift on Russia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver was “narrowly tailored” and “short-term” and would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government. Under General License 134, the authorization applies only to Russian-origin crude and petroleum products already loaded on vessels by March 12 and runs through April 11.
US President Donald Trump has declined to restart negotiations with Iran for now, as officials question whether the country’s leadership is firmly in control.
Goble said he sees little chance that the sanctions will be restored immediately afterward.
“Once you lift sanctions, even suspend them for this period of time, you will create a group within the national security elite of the United States who will argue, well, if we could lift those for a time being, why don’t we lift them longer?” he said.
“I think it highly likely that this administration will not reimpose the sanctions on April 12. I don’t see that happening.”
Goble argued that any delay in restoring restrictions would give Russia both financial and political advantages, while making it harder for Washington to rebuild pressure on the Kremlin.
Oil money means more war
Goble said the effect of the move is straightforward. Giving Russia more oil revenue means giving the Kremlin more resources to continue the war in Ukraine and project power elsewhere.
“It gives Russia a great deal more money to engage in its vicious war in Ukraine and to do other nefarious things around the world,” he said.
Fear of a quiet deal with Moscow
For Goble, the timing of the decision is especially troubling because it may signal that Washington is testing the ground for a broader accommodation with Russia.
“Doing this right now looks like an exploration by Washington of the possibility of some behind-the-scenes deal with the Russians with respect to Ukraine,” he said. “That’s truly frightening.”
He warned that even limited concessions to Moscow would damage Western unity and weaken the principles the United States says it is defending.
G7 split deepens over sanctions relief
The Trump administration’s move has also triggered open criticism from key US allies, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emerging as one of the clearest voices against it.
Speaking on Friday at a joint news conference with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, Merz said the issue had already been raised directly with US President Donald Trump during the G7 leaders’ video call earlier in the week.
“There was a very clear consensus among six G7 members that this is not the right signal to send,” he said.
“Once again, we believe this is the wrong move. There is currently a price problem, not a supply problem.”
Canada also rejected the US approach, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying Ottawa would not follow Washington’s lead and would keep restrictions in place on the Russian shadow fleet.
French President Emmanuel Macron also opposed the move, arguing that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz did not justify reducing pressure on Russia.
Starmer says focus must remain on Ukraine
On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer used his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in London to make a similar point, warning against allowing the Middle East crisis to push Ukraine out of view.
Welcoming Zelensky to Downing Street, Starmer said Western attention must not drift even as the US-Israeli war with Iran dominates diplomacy and headlines.
“I think it’s really important that we are clear that the focus must remain on Ukraine,” Starmer said.
“There’s obviously a conflict in Iran going on, in the Middle East, but we can’t lose focus on what’s going on in Ukraine and the need for our support,” he added.
Zelensky’s visit to London came after a stop in Paris and ahead of a trip to Madrid, part of a broader effort to keep Ukraine at the center of European security discussions as Washington’s attention is pulled elsewhere.
The Middle East war also appears to have derailed US-led talks involving Ukraine and Russia, which Trump has made a priority since returning to office in January 2025. A new round of talks had been expected earlier this month, but it never took place and no new date has been announced.
Speaking on Monday, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas made clear that Brussels would maintain pressure on Moscow.
“Following the US decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil, Europe will maintain sanctions and continue to move away from Russian fossil fuels,” Kallas said. “If we want this war to end, Moscow must have less money for the war, not more.”
Middle East tensions could hurt Ukraine
Goble said the growing crisis around Iran could deepen pressure on Ukraine by diverting military resources and strategic urgency.
“There are only so many weapons systems,” he said. “If you are going to need them in the Strait of Hormuz, you’re not going to have them available to give to the Ukrainians in the Donbas.”
Goble said Moscow is already trying to use the crisis to its advantage by promoting false comparisons between Western military actions in the Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Goble’s warning is that even temporary policy changes may carry long-term consequences.
If sanctions are not restored and Western attention continues to drift, Russia stands to gain economically, politically, and militarily.
For Goble, that is the real risk behind the current moment.
“This is not just about Ukraine,” he said. “It’s about the future of the international order.”
