The US-Israeli strikes on Iran and ensuing conflagration offer a window into how the US-led order works. For all its contributions, it functions like an air conditioner – cooling the American centre by pumping hot air into the periphery. Aggressive interest rate hikes export inflation to emerging markets. Proxy wars outsource geopolitical risk to distant theatres. The United States stays cool while the Global South absorbs the brunt of the heat.
But the vents are closing: developing nations are consciously securing defence autonomy, fostering geoeconomic resilience and asserting resource sovereignty. This is not major powers decoupling from the top down, but small and middle powers building a firewall from the bottom up. The goal is not to isolate, but to insulate.
The Middle East makes for the most telling case in the coming “Great Insulation”. Treated for decades as a staging ground for great-power proxy conflicts, the region has in recent years been reclaiming geopolitical agency on its own terms.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a historic rapprochement brokered by Beijing. This ended seven years of hostility and helped bring security dividends. In Yemen, for instance, alongside broader mediation, it contributed to a 33 per cent year-on-year drop in civilian casualties, while armed attacks on civilian infrastructure plummeted by 80 per cent.
Yet, this security independence remains fragile. Despite calling for de-escalation, the Gulf states found themselves caught in the US-Iran crossfire. America’s military presence in these countries has delivered the opposite of what it promised, catalysing turmoil instead of anchoring stability. The security umbrella has become the lightning rod. US allies in the Gulf are paying the price for Washington’s decision.
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Iran conflict spreads to neighbouring countries
