The Kurds’ fortunes have ebbed and flowed in recent years, but the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, the 2025 decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to dissolve and engage in talks with the Turkish government, and the 2026 U.S.-Israeli war with Iran had enormous ripple effects on the lives of Kurds in the Middle East and Kurdish hopes for autonomy. We asked four experts to assess how recent regional events are presenting risks and opportunities for the Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran.Read more below. Gönül TolSenior Fellow at the Middle East InstituteThe Iran war has unsettled Ankara, especially as it came in the midst of negotiations with the PKK as part of a process to disband the group. Initial U.S.-Israeli calls for the Iranian Kurds to rise up against the Iranian regime raised fears of a repeat of the Syrian case, where the United States armed PKK-linked groups in the fight against the Islamic State. However, an Iranian Kurdish uprising did not occur, and the war instead created dynamics that strengthened the hand of central governments toward their own Kurdish groups — a welcome development for Ankara, which has cultivated closer ties with governments in Syria and Iraq at the Kurds’ expense.These developments help Ankara to advance its PKK disarmament process, given the interlinked nature of Kurdish politics across borders: Weakening the position of Kurdish groups in neighboring countries boosts Ankara’s negotiating power with the PKK. Erdogan recently announced efforts to speed up the PKK’s disbandment. The process remains fragile, but the war made Turkey’s Kurdish opening more urgent and gave Erdogan a stronger incentive to reduce domestic vulnerabilities — though a slim risk remains that regional instability could push Ankara back toward securitization.Albert B. WolfGlobal Fellow at Habib UniversityFormerly taught at American
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