The Western Balkans as 2nd Front of European Security
Russia’s influence in Europe is perhaps strongest and least publicized in the Balkans. Moscow’s efforts combined with the EU’s congenital slowness could spell disaster.
Kyiv Post
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The war in Ukraine has opened the main front in the struggle for European security, but it is not the only one. While war is being waged in Eastern Europe, another front is emerging in the southeast of the continent – less visible but extremely dangerous, both politically and in terms of security. Its epicenter is in the Western Balkans.
For years, this region has been viewed as a slow-moving issue for European enlargement. Today, that is a luxury Europe can no longer afford. Russia’s war against Ukraine has dramatically changed the continent’s security architecture, while crises in the Middle East are disrupting the energy and trade routes that sustain the European economy.
Between these two pressures lies the Western Balkans, a region already economically connected to Europe but still not part of its security system. In these circumstances, the Balkans is no longer a peripheral issue in European politics. It is becoming a test of Europe’s ability to protect its own security space. If Europe leaves that space empty, someone else will fill it.
The gray area of Europe
In recent years, the Western Balkans has increasingly taken on the characteristics of an operational gray zone between the European Union and external actors seeking to project political, informational, and security influence into Europe.
Such an environment does not arise suddenly. It develops through a gradual process in which information operations, financial networks, logistical flows, and political influences – operating outside the institutional framework of the European Union – intertwine.
Voices of dissent are rarely heard on Russian prime time TV. But one fervent nationalist has begun to air uncomfortable opinions. Could this be the sign of an imminent disintegration?
This institutional incompleteness makes the region susceptible to indirect operations. As a result, the Balkans is increasingly seen as an area through which logistical and financial connections related to political influence operations in Europe pass.
These operations are not conducted with tanks or missiles. They are aimed at undermining trust in institutions and the stability of the political system. When public space is in a state of constant crisis, societies become paralyzed.
This is how Europe is weakened from within.
Information war in the heart of Europe
In 2025, several European security services detected coordinated influence operations that combined cyber-attacks, financial flows, and aggressive disinformation campaigns.
In multiple European countries, attacks on media platforms were reported, followed by the coordinated spread of narratives about the supposed disintegration of European institutions and the political weakness of the European Union.
These operations are not spontaneous. They are carefully designed to target the most sensitive aspect of modern democracies – the information space.
An attack on infrastructure can be repaired. An attack on trust is much more difficult to address.
The logistics of invisible conflict
The Western Balkans region is located at the crossroads of major European transport and energy corridors. Key routes connecting Central Europe with the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea region pass through this area.
This is why the Balkan region has an importance that exceeds their economic size. It is a crucial transit zone for goods, energy, and money. In this flow, covert operations can go unnoticed much more easily.
In such an environment, political influence is rarely exercised through formal politics. More often, it comes through money, business connections, and logistics networks that pass through the region.
The Balkans in a wider war against the European order
For Ukraine, the stability of the Western Balkans is not a peripheral European issue. It is part of the broader security context of the war that Russia is waging against the European order.
Since the start of the aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to extend political and security pressure on Europe beyond the front lines. The Balkans is a natural target for such a strategy.
Every political crisis in the region, every destabilization, or information operation targeting European institutions has the same effect: it diverts attention, wastes political energy, and weakens Europe’s ability to focus on the war in Ukraine. This is the logic of strategic distraction.
If Europe must simultaneously manage the war in Ukraine, crises in the Middle East, and political instability in the Balkans, its capacity for long-term strategic action is diminished.
This is why the Balkans is far more important than often acknowledged. The stability of the Western Balkans is now part of Europe’s broader security landscape.
For too long, Europe has treated this region as a slow enlargement issue to be addressed through negotiation chapters and bureaucratic procedures. That approach no longer matches reality. The war in Ukraine has changed the continent’s security environment, and instability in the Middle East is already affecting energy and trade flows to Europe. In this context, the Balkans is no longer a distant political problem; it has become a matter of European stability.
The front in Ukraine now defends Eastern Europe, but the continent’s stability will also be determined in the Balkans.
If the area between the Adriatic, Danube, and Aegean remains outside the European system, it will become a source of ongoing instability.
In a world where crises develop in months rather than decades, the slowness of European decision-making is no longer just a political problem – it is a security issue.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Dr. Orhan Dragaš is a Serbian expert on security and international relations. He is the founder and director of the International Security Institute, based in Belgrade; author of numerous expert articles, newspaper columns, as well as the books "The modern intelligence-security community, utopia or reality"; and; "Two faces of globalization – truth and deceptions."
