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Europe believes Russia could attack within the next two years while Trump is in power – Politico
The European Union fears that Russia could attempt to test NATO within the next two years, while Donald Trump remains in office and before the EU has strengthened its military capabilities.
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The European Union fears that Russia could attempt to test NATO within the next two years, while Donald Trump remains in office and before the EU has strengthened its military capabilities.
Source: European Pravda, citing Politico
Details: According to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions, defence officials and lawmakers are worried that the Kremlin may view the next one to two years as an ideal window to put NATO's strength to the test.
"Something could happen very soon – there is a Russian window of opportunity," said Mika Aaltola, a Finnish centre-right member of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee. "The US is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in a shambles, and the EU is not yet fully ready to take on the responsibilities by themselves."
Officials have not ruled out the possibility that Vladimir Putin could launch a ground operation in a NATO member state, although they consider it unlikely given Russia's exhaustion from the war in Ukraine.
More likely, Aaltola suggested, would be a targeted action or limited incursion designed to create ambiguity and sow discord within NATO over whether such an action meets the threshold for triggering Article 5 – the alliance's mutual defence clause – which states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who is due to leave office in January 2029, has repeatedly described NATO as a "paper tiger".
Politico notes that although European defence spending has surged since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the full impact will only be felt in the coming years.
Under its defence readiness roadmap, the EU aims to be able to "credibly deter its adversaries and respond to any aggression" by 2030.
There are also differences in tone within Europe. Politicians from countries such as Finland and Lithuania have been warning that Europe urgently needs to strengthen its missile defence and military readiness, especially amid delays in US arms deliveries due to the war in Iran. Others, including officials in Estonia and NATO, caution against alarmist rhetoric, arguing that any signs of panic would play into Moscow's hands.
Aaltola warned that downplaying the threat risks giving Europe a false sense of security, calling it "the worst thing" for democratic societies.
This "is actually the worst thing you can create in democratic countries," he said.
Background:
Estonian politicians say that statements by Volodymyr Zelenskyy about a possible Russian preparation for an attack on the Baltic states do not help cooperation.
Meanwhile, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene has suggested avoiding alarmist rhetoric in response to Zelenskyy's remarks.
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