Ex-US Envoy Herbst Says Putin Wants US Bogged Down in Iran, Not Peace in Ukraine
Former ambassador John Herbst tells Kyiv Post he would be surprised if Moscow hadn’t offered to stop sharing intelligence with Iran for an end to US intelligence support for Ukraine.
Kyiv Post
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WASHINGTON, DC – John E. Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said he has little doubt that Russia offered to stop sharing intelligence with Iran in exchange for the United States ending intelligence support for Ukraine.
In an interview with Kyiv Post, Herbst said: “I would be surprised if Russia had not made this offer. There’s no question that Ukraine is the principal national security problem for Putin. His war is not doing very well. It’s now been longer than World War II for Russia, and Putin has not gotten much farther than he had before the big invasion. And he has paid a great price for the big invasion.”
He said the reported US rejection of the proposal suggests that President Donald Trump still understands the need for a durable peace that leaves Ukraine “independent, sovereign, secure, and economically viable.”
Why Russia backs Iran and others
Herbst said Russia’s support for Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba is driven less by real strength than by the Kremlin’s desire to look like a global power.
“Russia considers itself a global power,” he said. “So global powers have friends or proxies or allies all over the world in theory.”
But he said those relationships are often more about prestige than practical influence, with Moscow’s actual support proving limited.
As protests sweep all 31 provinces, Iran’s organized resistance grows – demanding democracy, gender equality, and an end to theocratic rule.
Putin wants Iran to be a quagmire for US
Asked about China’s potential role, Herbst said Beijing, like Moscow, would prefer to see the United States tied down by a prolonged conflict.
“I think China, like Russia, would like to see the United States get bogged down in Iran,” he said. “This is actually a pretty good situation for China.”
He argued that both China and Russia see the United States as their principal adversary and share an interest in weakening American power and influence wherever possible.
Asked about Moscow and Beijing abstaining on the March 11 UN Security Council vote on Iran, Herbst said both are trying to balance their interests: Russia wants the United States distracted without provoking a tougher response on Ukraine, while China wants to keep getting oil from Iran without angering Washington too much.
Russia is playing spoiler, not peacemaker
Asked about Russia’s latest mass drone attack on Ukraine and signs of a spring offensive, Herbst said Putin has no real interest in peace.
“Putin wants the fighting to continue,” he said, noting that the Kremlin has rejected multiple peace proposals accepted by Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Herbst said Putin is also trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Kyiv. While Moscow is pleased that the United States is no longer providing aid to Ukraine, he said the Kremlin now wants to cut off US military intelligence support and stop American weapons from reaching Ukraine through Europe.
When would US-led peace talks work?
Asked what would need to change for peace talks to become effective, Herbst’s answer was blunt: “It’s pretty simple. Put pressure on Moscow.”
He said Putin’s strategy has been to flatter Trump while rejecting every real peace proposal.
“His aim is to praise Trump at every opportunity, but to say no to every actual peace proposal,” Herbst said. “And so far, it’s working reasonably well for him.”
For that to change, he said, Washington needs to keep increasing pressure on Russia.
“We need to see constant pressure, new pressure on Russia, so Putin understands he cannot achieve any further gains on the battlefield in Ukraine,” he said.
Can Russia be trusted with Iran’s nuclear material?
Asked about Russia’s reported offer to store Iranian nuclear material while the war continues, Herbst dismissed the idea that Moscow could be trusted.
“I think the question answers itself,” he said.
Herbst pointed to Putin’s repeated falsehoods, including denying an imminent invasion of Ukraine just before February 2022 and falsely claiming that the “little green men” who seized Crimea in 2014 were not Russian troops.
“He’s a serial liar,” Herbst said. “So of course you can’t trust them.”
He added that Russia and Iran have long worked together against the United States and suggested that Putin would likely seek to deepen that cooperation again when circumstances allow.
Does Ukraine have cards?
Herbst dismissed the idea that Russia is the only beneficiary of the Iran war and said the conflict could also strengthen Ukraine.
He pointed to Gulf states’ interest in buying Ukrainian drones and seeking Ukrainian air defense expertise, saying some Arab countries that had been comfortable dealing with Russia are now rethinking Moscow because of its ties to Iran.
Asked whether that means Ukraine has cards now, Herbst said: “Ukraine always had cards – a year ago and today.”
Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering US foreign policy, security, and geopolitics, with a focus on the broader post-Soviet space. She reports on Washington’s decision-making and its implications for Ukraine and regional stability.
