The French Navy (Marine Nationale) is assessing how to prepare its strategic thinking and operational outputs across the short, medium, and longer terms, as it responds to major shifts in the threat landscape, understands how to manage strategic shocks that may occur, and considers how to shape its future force structure, the service’s second-in-command senior officer told the Paris Naval Conference in early February.
The conference, occurring for the fourth successive year, was hosted again by the French Navy and IFRI (France’s international relations institute). The discussions encompassed the changing nature of naval operations and combat, set against the backdrop of a deteriorating strategic and security environment including challenges to the long-established rules-based order.
The three timeframes are all core areas of daily focus for the service, said Vice Admiral Alban Lapointe, the navy’s deputy chief.
Short-term
Considering the short-term strategic situation the navy and its NATO allies face today in 2026, Vice Adm Lapointe said the threats are significant, and the context in which they sit has changed significantly, too. “The fundamentals are no longer where we expect them to be”, with previous comfort zones now becoming danger zones, the admiral said.
The counter to this, Vice Adm Lapointe continued, alliances – bilateral and multinational – remain vital. Navies also need to quickly grasp any opportunities emerging, as things are changing quickly too.
“We live in a world where things happen very, very fast,”
“So, we will be faced with opportunities – but we will have to seize them, because they won’t come again.”
Navies will also need to identify and address their potential weaknesses, working with allies to help understand and address them together. This is another daily focus area, the admiral said.
Medium-term
Developing an ability to respond will be key to addressing the medium-term challenges in the 2030 timeframe. “By then, we need to be ready for battle,” said Vice Adm Lapointe. “We need to be prepared to attack and to be attacked.” The hybrid warfare threat environment makes being ready even more important, he added.
“We need to be ready all over, in every compartment,” Vice Adm Lapointe explained. This means being prepared, and strengthening resources, equipment, and mindsets – but it also means strengthening logistics, he added. “If logistics do not follow, we cannot win the battle, we cannot win the war.”
Moreover, Vice Adm Lapointe argued, to be ready by 2030 – as government and military leaders want their navies to be – those navies need to be ready today.
Long-term
Looking out to the longer-term horizon of 2040, Vice Adm Lapointe explained that, by this time, the navy and its allies may have needed to consider, circumnavigate, and/or deal with any strategic shocks that may emerge in and from today’s deteriorating strategic and security environment. As a consequence of perhaps addressing any such shocks, France’s naval fleet may well need to be renewed, including harnessing new technology. The admiral added that France’s aircraft carrier and submarine forces will need to have been recapitalised by this time.
A significant question at this point too will be whether relationships between allies have strengthened and returned to an even keel, Vice Adm Lapointe said.
The consequence of all this, the admiral continued, is the need for collective reflection – such as in the conference debates – on where and how to start preparing, managing the first shock that may occur, and building the navy back up.
*Quotations in this news story are taken directly from the live English translation of the speech at the conference. The speech was delivered in French.
