Iran war wipes $120bn off Dubai, Abu Dhabi stock markets

The United Arab Emirates’ stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have lost around $120bn in value since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, placing them among the hardest-hit financial markets worldwide.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s benchmark indexes have plunged about 16 percent and 9 percent, respectively, since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.

Since the start of the war, the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) General Index has lost about $45bn in market capitalisation, while the larger ADX General Index has shed about $75bn.

Financial markets in Qatar and Bahrain have dropped about 4 percent and 7 percent, respectively, while exchanges in Saudi Arabia and Oman have racked up gains.

On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 has dropped about 7 percent over the same period amid US President Donald Trump’s mixed messages about the expected length and goals of the war.

While the UAE has been less exposed to the global energy shock caused by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz than many of its Gulf peers, the conflict has dealt a blow to the country’s standing as a regional travel hub.

Tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled due to the war, many of them on routes in and out of Dubai’s international airport, the world’s busiest for international passengers.

Tourism and travel contributed about $70bn to the UAE economy last year, accounting for 13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to state media.

Haytham Aoun, an assistant professor of finance at the American University in Dubai, said that while the slide would be an unwelcome development for the UAE authorities seeking to boost the country’s status as a financial hub, it should be viewed as a “temporary shock” rather than evidence of structural economic damage.

“It is clearly a short-term setback to investor sentiment and market confidence, but not necessarily a fundamental challenge to the UAE’s long-term economic plan,” Aoun told Al Jazeera.

“International financial centres are judged not only by market performance during crises but also by the quality of regulation, liquidity management, institutional resilience, and operational continuity.”

While the UAE’s stock markets are relatively small by global standards, the country has invested heavily in financial services as part of its economic diversification efforts, and now ranks among the top capital markets in the Middle East.

The value of UAE-listed stocks passed $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, second only to Saudi Arabia’s $2.5 trillion market in the region.

Dubai rose to seventh place for competitiveness in the latest edition of the Global Financial Centres Index, released last week by Z/Yen Partners in collaboration with the China Development Institute, its highest-ever rank.

Under a 10-year economic plan unveiled in 2023, the country’s leaders have outlined a vision for Dubai to become one of the world’s top four global financial centres by 2033.

Burdin Hickok, a professor at New York University’s School of Professional Studies who was previously based in the Middle East with the US Department of State, said the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges could expect to see a “serious rebound” once a resolution was found to the war.

“From a long-term perspective, I don’t see this volatility as exceptional,” Hickok told Al Jazeera.

“The fundamental attractiveness of both stock markets is not changing, meaning regulatory or capital restrictions, which would be a more fundamental change,” he added.