Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Ukrainian forces advanced 10 to 12 kilometers deep in two separate drives in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers since late January 2026.
- Ukrainian forces conducted mutually supporting drives in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions in late 2025 and early 2026, respectively, to push Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and to undermine Russian preparations for a spring offensive.
- Ukrainian forces were likely able to rapidly advance in the Oleksandrivka direction after infiltrating dispersed Russian positions in poor weather conditions and suppressing Russian drone-based defenses.
- SpaceX’s blocking of Russia’s Starlink satellite connection in Ukraine in early February 2026 likely also enabled Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exaggerate Russian battlefield advances despite Ukrainian forces’ recent liberation of significant territory in southern Ukraine.
- Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine are likely interfering with the anticipated Russian spring-summer 2026 offensives in Donetsk Oblast and southern Ukraine despite Putin’s claims of Russian battlefield successes.
- Russia also continues to suffer massive losses on the battlefield that will continue to hinder Russia’s ability to achieve its sweeping goals for the spring-summer 2026 campaign.
- Ukrainian forces are intensifying their theater-wide, mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower, which will likely also interfere with the Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive.
- Kremlin officials provided varying accounts of US President Donald Trump’s statements about a ceasefire in Ukraine during his March 9 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- Putin continued to call on the United States to halt its ongoing military operation in the Middle East while refusing to end Russia’s own war in Ukraine.
- The Russian government is reportedly considering a bill that would grant the Russian president powers for extraterritorial military operations to protect Russian citizens abroad.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian forces struck a defense plant in Russia. Russian forces launched 137 drones against Dnipro and Kharkiv cities.
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