Moscow’s threats ahead of the May 9 parade exposed not Russian strength, but growing concern over the security of its own capital and leadership.
Kyiv Post
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Russia’s threats to strike Kyiv’s “decision-making centers” ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade failed to intimidate Ukraine. Instead, the rhetoric exposed Moscow’s own anxiety regarding potential disruptions to one of the Kremlin’s most symbolic annual events.
Kyiv remained undeterred, having already endured over four years of relentless Russian missile and drone strikes. Because homes, infrastructure, and civilians have been targeted repeatedly, the Kremlin’s renewed threats carry little weight as a tool of fear.
More than that, the threats revealed Russia’s own weakness. In the fifth year of its full-scale war, Moscow’s warnings showed that the Kremlin no longer feels secure about the skies over its own capital.
The language of “if you hit our capital, we will hit yours” suggests the opposite of confidence. It signals that Moscow is worried about its own decision-making centers and whether it can protect them.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed out, Russia is effectively asking Kyiv for permission to hold its parade safely. That is a striking reversal. Russia launched its full-scale invasion expecting to seize Kyiv in days. Now, years later, it is asking Ukraine not to disrupt Moscow’s most sacred holiday.
Moscow’s new reality
The Kremlin’s anxiety was also visible in how urgently it tried to secure a pause in fighting for the parade.
Russia appears to be preparing a new test of its troubled Sarmat intercontinental missile, with aviation warnings and restricted zones suggesting a launch around the symbolic May 9 Victory Day period. The system, plagued by repeated failures, has yet to enter service despite years of development and earlier Kremlin promises.
For Moscow to seek help from Washington in restraining Kyiv is telling. It shows that Russia understands Ukraine now has the ability to threaten targets that once seemed untouchable – including the skies over Moscow itself.
That marks a new reality in the war. After more than four years of full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s defense technology and long-range strike capabilities have reached a level that Moscow can no longer ignore.
The balance of power is changing. Kyiv is no longer dependent on weapons provided by partners with strict political conditions. Increasingly, Ukraine has its own capabilities and makes its own decisions about when and where to strike.
The symbolism is difficult to miss: A state that once supposedly said it would capture Ukraine’s capital in three days is now seeking guarantees for the safety of its own.
Calling Moscow’s bluff
Ukraine’s offer of a ceasefire starting May 6 was also a shrewd move. Unlike Moscow’s short, parade-centered pause, Kyiv proposed a longer silence. Had Russia accepted it and kept the ceasefire through May 9, it would have proved that Moscow is capable of stopping fire when it chooses to.
That is exactly what the Kremlin has tried to avoid admitting. Kyiv’s proposal exposed that manipulation.
Instead of accepting Ukraine’s offer and proving it could observe silence, Moscow rejected the longer ceasefire and sought help from others to secure the skies over its own capital.
Saving Moscow’s image
The 2026 Victory Day parade on Red Square serves as a stark visual indicator of Russia’s shifting geopolitical and military landscape. For the first time in nearly two decades, the event is expected to feature no heavy military hardware, such as tanks or missiles, highlighting the severe equipment losses and operational strain caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
While attempting to occupy foreign territory, the Kremlin has seen its influence steadily erode across regions traditionally considered within Moscow’s orbit.
Days before the May 9 parade, Armenia hosted a European Political Community summit in Yerevan that focused on support for Ukraine. This was a significant symbolic shift; despite remaining a formal member of Russia’s Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has increasingly distanced itself from Moscow and recently refused to host the bloc’s summits on its territory.
Only days earlier, Zelensky visited Azerbaijan, another state Moscow traditionally viewed as part of its regional sphere of influence. Reports suggest Kyiv and Baku discussed expanded security cooperation and possibly joint defense or drone production initiatives.
Allies are drifting away
Russia has struggled to demonstrate that it can protect even its closest partners.
Moscow failed to provide decisive support to Iran during its recent confrontation with Israel and the United States. It was unable to preserve the rule of its longtime ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Syria. Nor could it reliably shield Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, who was ousted from office and captured by US forces in a surprise military operation in Caracas.
The May 9 parade serves a dual purpose. Beyond projecting the image of a resilient global power despite sanctions and military setbacks, the spectacle functions primarily as domestic theater – a choreographed effort to convince Russians that the Kremlin remains strong and firmly in command.
As Moscow holds its parade, at the current pace of the war, 30,000 to 35,000 Russian soldiers could be killed or wounded this month alone – sacrificed not in defense of their borders, but in an aggression against Ukraine. The Kremlin may prove as incapable of protecting these lives as it is of securing the skies over Moscow.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Sevinj Osmanqizi is a journalist covering US foreign policy, security, and geopolitics, with a focus on the broader post-Soviet space. She reports on Washington’s decision-making and its implications for Ukraine and regional stability.
