Hungarian Election: Ukraine and EU Are Major Winners, Putin and Trump Losers
Orban’s landslide defeat may augur a sea change in the geopolitical landscape. “Illiberal democracy” has been thoroughly rejected in the European nation that served as Putin’s stalking horse.
Kyiv Post
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Many prominent analysts, such as Martin Wolf and Timothy Ash, have asserted that Hungary’s parliamentary elections yesterday, April 12, and the US midterm congressional elections slated for Nov. 3 are the two most important elections this year.
Fortunately, Peter Magyar and his Tisza party won a landslide victory with 54% of the votes against 38% for Viktor Orban’s Fidesz. Fortunately, the election result was so clear that Orban honorably called Magyar early on and conceded. Tisza is poised to get a constitutional supermajority of 138 seats out of 199 seats in the Hungarian parliament.
This election result offers many inspiring lessons. It shows that even an incumbent kleptocrat of 16 years with control of nearly all media and state institutions can be beaten. The Hungarian example suggests that the requirements for a democratic victory might be fewer than is usually argued.
First of all, you need sufficient liberty to have reasonably free elections and the freedom of speech. Second, you need a strong political leader who credibly stands for democracy. Third, the opposition must be united. Previously, that had not been the case in Hungary. Finally, state-controlled media can be overcome by a free internet even if it is contaminated by Russian and Musk disinformation – as in Hungary. Orban’s near monopoly on the media appears to have been less effective than feared.
The winner, Peter Magyar, had framed the vote as a historic choice ‘between East and West.’
Naturally, open borders and the presence of the EU have great impact, and Hungarians could see for themselves what was wrong in Hungary. Magyar’s success augurs well for other illiberal countries, such as Slovakia and Serbia, while Belarus and Russia are just too repressive.
At this early moment, the international implications appear most obvious. Tellingly, Orban’s election posters vilified three persons: Magyar, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Logically, the two biggest winners outside of Hungary appear to be Ukraine and the European Union. Both need to act fast and on the current momentum, because we don’t know how long it will last.
As soon as possible, the EU should decide on the preferential loan of €90 billion for Ukraine.
Von der Leyen made the following statement after Magyar’s victory: “Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. A country reclaims its European path. The Union grows stronger.”
The EU needs to take three immediate actions. As soon as possible, the EU should decide on the preferential loan of €90 billion for Ukraine, which the EU already decided on last December, but Orban blocked it later on. This loan is supposed to be disbursed during two years, but Ukraine needs financing in this quarter. Second, the EU should decide to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. At the same time, the EU should impose tougher sanctions on Russia, which Orban has blocked for so long. It should also step up its enforcement of its sanctions, notably on the Russian shadow fleet, as Sweden, France and the United Kingdom have begun doing.
The EU needs to act fast, because new problems might arise. After all, both Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis campaigned for Orban. Initially, they are likely to heed the results and become more supportive of the EU, but that might be only temporary. The EU can and should expand the share of issues that it decides with qualified majority. The European Treaty does allow many more decisions to be made by a majority, but only if the European Council opens the door for such decision making.
The big winner is Ukraine, against which both Orban and Trump ran. Ukraine can now happily ignore Trump’s calls for Ukraine giving up territory to Russia. After Trump, Vance, Witkoff and Kushner have all made fools of themselves in Trump’s war of folly against Iran, these pro-Russian characters are not likely to be able to cause much trouble for Ukraine in the future, while Europe, including the UK and Norway, is likely to offer Ukraine more support of all kinds.
The biggest loser is Putin. Russian interference and disinformation did not help.
Yet the EU and the International Monetary Fund do impose firm conditions on Ukraine. These conditions are by and large to the benefit of Ukraine, but it is vital that the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, adopt all the required legislation early on so that Ukraine can obtain the necessary European funding and start actual EU accession negotiations as soon as possible.
The biggest loser is Putin. Russian interference and disinformation did not help. Orban was Putin’s closest ally in Europe who happily sabotaged all kinds of EU decisions, while providing Putin with secret information. Hungary is the European outpost of the GRU. Putin is likely to face a much more united EU supporting Ukraine and more effective sanctions on Russia. Putin’s friend Trump is now so weakened after his debacle in Iran and his vehement hostility against Europe and NATO that he can no longer be of such great help to Putin.
All antidemocratic and kleptocratic rightwing extremists in Europe and the US campaigned for Orban: Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Steven Bannon, Alice Weidel, Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, Geert Wilders, Herbert Kickl, Robert Fico, Andrej Babis, etc. Their interference and endorsements did not help. Orban was their great star, so his demise is likely to hurt them all.
This might contribute somewhat to an anticipated big loss for the Republican in the US midterm elections, because of the dysfunction of Trump’s domestic policy.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
