Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranOn June 17, U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian separately signed a memorandum of understanding. Mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, the agreement ends hostilities and provides early returns for both sides: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is ticking up, oil prices have been coming down, and Washington has issued a 60-day waiver on Iranian oil and petrochemical sales. But diverging claims on nearly every point the two sides spent weeks litigating underscore the long and uncertain road ahead in converting an initial understanding into a “final deal.” Key points for negotiations include the terms of Iranian access to its frozen financial assets, the future of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the return of international inspectors to various Iranian nuclear sites.From the Iranian regime’s perspective, it has shown resilience and demonstrated leverage over the strait, so Iranian leaders do not perceive a need to surrender to U.S. demands. In Washington, the agreement with Tehran is the subject of significant bipartisan criticism — either for conceding too much following a justified conflict or as an ignominious conclusion to a misbegotten campaign. Both sides are well aware of the costs — both military and economic — of letting the memorandum of understanding fall apart. But as technical teams are due to reconvene for negotiations at the end of June, the hardest work lies ahead.View of the Strait of Hormuz taken during ISS Expedition 46, on June 5, 2016. Image: JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth via Wikimedia CommonsRussiaThe last two weeks have seen a marked intensification of Ukraine’s offensive campaign against Russia, both in the number of strikes and their depth.
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