Russian Strikes Create ‘Extreme Uncertainty’ for Ukraine’s Grain Exporters, Doubling Logistics Costs

Despite repeated attacks on ports and infrastructure, Ukraine has already exported about 100 million tons of agricultural products through its wartime grain corridor.

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Russian Strikes Create ‘Extreme Uncertainty’ for Ukraine’s Grain Exporters, Doubling Logistics Costs

Ukraine’s grain exporters say the biggest challenge today is the lack of predictability in logistics as Russian strikes continue to disrupt infrastructure, energy supply and port operations.

Repeated strikes on ports, railways and energy infrastructure – combined with prolonged air raid alerts – have doubled transport costs, disrupted export planning and forced companies to constantly reroute cargo. Yet despite the instability, Ukraine has still managed to move tens of millions of tons of agricultural exports through a functioning network of sea, rail and river corridors.

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Cost surges

Logistics costs show how dramatically the war has reshaped export routes. Shipping grain from central Ukraine to Spain – a benchmark route tracked by exporters from Kremenchuk to Barcelona – cost about $30 per ton before Russia’s full-scale invasion. It currently averages about $60 per ton, Volodymyr Slavinskyi, director of trade at NIBULON, said during the Forbes Agro conference.

At the peak since the war began, the cost surged to $120-150 per ton. During a spike in railway tariffs in November–December 2025, logistics reached $70–80 per ton.

Volodymyr Slavinskyi, director of trade at NIBULON, speaking during the Forbes Agro conference. (Photo courtesy of Forbes Ukraine)

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Effect of strikes

Russian strikes on port and energy infrastructure, damaged facilities and prolonged air raid alerts continue to disrupt export operations. “In some days, air raid alerts lasted up to 20 hours per day, which allowed terminals to operate for no more than four hours,” Slavinskyi said.

Ukraine’s railway network – which moves agricultural cargo an average distance of 650–700 kilometers (404-435 miles) to ports – is also under pressure from Russian attacks.

Valeriy Tkachov, deputy director of the commercial department at Ukrainian Railways, said the railway system experienced about 100 combined strikes in 2025 alone targeting energy facilities, rolling stock and dispatch centers. The attacks have also caused heavy human losses. More than 1,000 railway employees have been killed since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Strikes on Ukraine’s energy system further reduce railway capacity and limit the network’s ability to move grain toward export ports.

Valeriy Tkachov, deputy director of the commercial department at Ukrainian Railways, speaking during the Forbes Agro conference. (Photo courtesy of Forbes Ukraine)

Despite the instability, Ukraine has still managed to move tens of millions of tons of agricultural exports through a functioning network of sea, rail and river corridors. Indeed, Ukraine has already exported about 100 million tons of agricultural products through the wartime maritime corridor.

Combined, Ukraine’s export infrastructure is capable of moving about 50 million tons of grain per year. According to industry estimates, the country can ship around 40 million tons of grain annually through the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa. Western land border crossings could handle roughly another 10 million tons, while Danube ports could add 10–15 million tons of capacity.

СЕО of Olir Resources Ivan Niyakiy, speaking during the Forbes Agro conference. (Photo courtesy of Forbes Ukraine)

Main export routes for grain

Ukraine currently relies on three main routes to export grain. The deep-water ports of Greater Odesa remain the dominant channel, handling about 90-94% of Ukrainian grain exports. A second route runs through western land border crossings – there are 15 such crossings, though they are currently operating at only about 30% of capacity due to higher logistics costs. The third route uses the Danube river ports, including Reni, Izmail, Galati and Giurgiulesti, which serve as an alternative corridor for shipments toward European markets.

At the same time, cargo flows through the Danube ports have dropped sharply since deep-water ports resumed full operations. СЕО of Olir Resources Ivan Niyakiy said volumes in Izmail have fallen roughly tenfold after Ukraine reopened the grain corridor. Instead of serving as a major grain export hub, the facility now operates primarily as a regional river terminal. The terminal currently focuses on handling coaster vessels and barge shipments, as well as niche cargo destined for smaller markets along the Danube and within the European Union.

Olena Hrazhdan

Olena Hrazhdan is the Business Reporter at Kyiv Post, covering Ukraine’s markets, business, and economic policy. While she reports broadly on economic issues, her core focus is banking, finance, monetary and fiscal policy. Olena previously wrote for leading Ukrainian business media and became a Fellow of the International Monetary Fund’s Journalism Fellowship in 2024.

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