Trump Claims ‘Great Progress’ in Iran Peace Talks

Contradictory Claims

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on Monday that “[g]reat progress has been made” in negotiations to end the Iran war. At the same time, though, Trump warned that if Tehran does not agree to a peace deal soon and immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then “we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!).”

The White House has issued this threat before. On March 21, Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the strategic waterway or else face attacks on its energy infrastructure; however, despite Iran failing to comply, on March 23, Trump extended the deadline to March 27. Then, less than 24 hours before that deadline was due to expire, Trump extended it again, this time to April 6. Each time that he has moved the cutoff date, Trump has cited negotiations with Iran as the reason.

An attack on Iran’s energy sector—particularly its critical Kharg Island, where around 90 percent of the country’s crude exports pass before transiting the Strait of Hormuz—could have devastating consequences for Tehran.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the Financial Times in an interview published on Sunday, adding, “I don’t think they have any defense. We could take it very easily.” Kharg is believed to have a loading capacity of some 7 million barrels a day.

While the White House purports to be making progress in Iran negotiations, the U.S. military is bolstering its troop presence in the Middle East, with 2,500 Marines and 2,500 sailors having arrived in recent days.

Tehran has pointed to these deployments as evidence that Washington is not serious about reaching a peace deal. “The enemy, openly, sends messages of negotiation and dialogue, but secretly is planning a ground attack,” Iranian parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday.

Ghalibaf making such allegations is particularly notable, as Trump told the New York Post on Monday that U.S. negotiators are working with the parliamentary speaker. Until now, the White House had refused to name who inside the Iranian regime they are talking to. “I’m not going to disclose to you who those people are because it probably would get them in trouble with some other groups of people inside of Iran,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ABC earlier on Monday.

On Sunday, Trump suggested that Washington had already achieved “regime change” in Tehran because U.S. forces have killed so many of its top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “The one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead,” Trump said. “The next regime is mostly dead.”

Yet, Iran has denied engaging in direct talks with the United States and has rejected Trump’s 15-point peace proposal as “excessive and unreasonable.” Meanwhile, Pakistan announced on Sunday that it is planning to host “meaningful talks” in the coming days in an attempt to end the conflict. It is not clear if Iran or the United States have agreed to attend.

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The World This Week

Tuesday, March 31: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visits the United Kingdom.

French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day trip to Japan.

European Union foreign ministers convene in Ukraine.

Thursday, April 2: Macron begins a two-day trip to South Korea.

Saturday, April 4: A 30-day U.S. waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil expires.

Sunday, April 5: Eight OPEC+ countries hold a virtual meeting.

What We’re Following

Lebanon’s difficult position. Iran refused to remove its ambassador to Lebanon on Monday despite Beirut labeling the diplomat persona non grata and ordering him to leave the country by March 29. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry withdrew accreditation for Ambassador-designate Mohammad Reza Shibani last week, accusing him of violating diplomatic norms by making public comments about internal Lebanese politics, criticizing decisions made by the Lebanese government, and meeting with unofficial Lebanese entities without consulting with the Foreign Ministry. Beirut has yet to comment on Iran’s decision to defy the order.

Relations between Beirut and Tehran have frayed since the U.S. war against Iran exacerbated the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Hezbollah, a key Iranian proxy group in the region, entered the Iran war in early March by launching rockets at Israel; Israel then responded with a renewed military offensive against the group. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to expand operations in southern Lebanon just days after Israel said it planned to enlarge the “buffer zone” along the two countries’ border up to the Litani River. This has prompted some experts to worry that Israel could be preparing for a full-scale ground invasion of Lebanon akin to its war in Gaza.

This puts Lebanon between a rock and a hard place. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has denounced Israeli military action in Lebanon—including Israel’s targeting of journalists. Meanwhile, Aoun has also tried to temper Israel’s ire by declaring Hezbollah an illegal organization despite such actions enraging Iran.

“The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran threatens to blow Lebanon to pieces,” Thanassis Cambanis wrote earlier this month in Foreign Policy. “In a worst-case scenario that grows more plausible by the day, the spiraling conflict could provoke a new civil war.” On Monday, two United Nations peacekeepers were killed in an explosion in southern Lebanon, just one day after another peacekeeper was killed when a projectile exploded near a U.N. position. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon has engaged in peacekeeping efforts in southern Lebanon since 1978.

Sidling up to China. Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun will visit several major Chinese cities next month as part of the Kuomintang (KMT) party’s efforts to bolster closer ties with Beijing. China considers Taiwan to be part of China and refuses to engage with its president, Lai Ching-te. However, Beijing remains open to talks with the China-friendly KMT.

“We hope April’s visit marks the ​beginning of the new spring of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and this would be the first step for both sides to extend kindness and build mutual trust,” Cheng said.

The six-day trip, announced on Monday, will occur one month before Trump travels to China for his own (delayed) summit with President Xi Jinping. Analysts expect Xi to use his meetings with Cheng to help convince the United States to curb weapons sales to Taiwan. In December, the Trump administration unveiled the United States’ largest-ever arms package for Taipei—worth a whopping $11.1 billion. This was the second U.S. arms sale to Taiwan in Trump’s second term, and it coincided with Lai’s efforts to increase defense spending to counter growing Chinese aggression.

Big career ambitions. Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, stepped down as commander in chief of the armed forces on Monday to pursue the presidency. Doing so paves the way for Min Aung Hlaing to maintain his grip on power after leading a military-backed coup against democratically elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi five years ago. Under the country’s constitution, two separate people must hold the positions of president and commander in chief.

Min Aung Hlaing has long coveted the presidency. In January, his military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party secured a landslide election win, clinching 232 out of 263 seats in the lower house of parliament and 109 out of 157 seats in the upper house; the United Nations and many Western countries denounced the vote as a sham. Min Aung Hlaing is now one of three candidates nominated to become president—and the only one expected to win the highest civilian office. (The other two will become vice presidents.) Parliament will convene next month to vote on the civilian leadership positions.

In Min Aung Hlaing’s place, Myanmar’s junta has chosen Gen. Ye Win Oo to be the new commander in chief. Experts characterize Ye Win Oo as a fierce loyalist of Min Aung Hlaing who, among his many tasks, oversaw interrogation centers where thousands of political prisoners have been tortured since the February 2021 coup.

Odds and Ends

China’s panda diplomacy may just have met its match. The Indonesian Foreign Ministry announced on Monday that it will loan two Komodo dragons (a male and a female) to Japan’s Shizuoka prefecture in June. In exchange, Tokyo will gift Jakarta several animals, including red pandas and giraffes. The Komodo program aims to breed the endangered reptiles, of which fewer than 3,500 remain in the wild and the majority of which live in Indonesia. The agreement, formalized last week, preceded Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s three-day state visit to Japan, which ends on Tuesday.