Ukraine Strikes Cancel Out Russia’s Oil Windfall – Zelensky Envoy
Ukraine says strikes on Russian energy infrastructure offset oil price gains, limiting billions in export earnings despite temporary market and sanctions shifts.
Kyiv Post
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Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have offset Moscow’s potential windfall from higher oil prices and adjustments in Western sanctions, a senior Ukrainian official has said.
Speaking to journalists during a closed-door briefing on April 10, Vladyslav Vlasyuk, presidential representative on sanctions policy, said Ukraine’s “kinetic sanctions” – referring to successful strikes on Russia’s oil and energy sector – have significantly constrained Moscow’s earnings.
“I can say that our kinetic sanctions have really managed to compensate for everything that Russia could have earned extra due to rising prices and the easing of US sanctions on oil,” Vlasyuk said.
According to the policy representative, preliminary estimates suggest Russia lost around $1.7 billion in revenue due to its inability to export certain volumes of oil via two Baltic ports and Novorossiysk.
However, Vlasyuk revealed that Russia offset roughly the same amount through higher global oil prices, as well as by selling oil already held at sea – mainly to India – following the easing of some US sanctions.
He said the strikes have so far helped cap Russia’s oil and gas revenues.
“They exceeded the annual budget deficit plan in three months, which is great news, and all the other structural changes that have occurred, or crises, or problems that have occurred in the Russian economy, have not gone away,” Vlasyuk said.
US analyst Paul Goble told Kyiv Post that Zelensky is voicing broad frustration that Washington appears more aligned with Moscow than Kyiv, and dismissed Putin’s Easter ceasefire as propaganda.
“From the beginning of this situation with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, we have been saying that this will allow the Russians to earn extra money that they will send to the war, but it will not save them strategically, from the point of view of structural problems in the economy.”
Ukraine expects that once disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, the impact of sanctions pressure on Russia will return to previous levels.
Vlasyuk said Ukraine does not see any meaningful pricing impact from the easing of sanctions on Russian oil.
He argued that Russian seaborne exports account for only about 6% of global oil flows, while roughly 30% passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning disruptions there have a far greater market effect.
“Why? Because Russian exports in the best of times are approximately 6% of global oil by sea, while 30% passes through Hormuz. And it was impossible for these 6%, at most, to significantly solve the problem of the absence of 30%,” he added.
Vlasyuk expressed hope that once the Strait of Hormuz is fully unblocked, sanctions pressure on Russian oil will also be restored.
“We hope that as soon as Hormuz is unblocked, all these sanctions against Russian oil will return with renewed force. And even better, if new sanctions appear,” he said.
Vlasyuk added that since April 4, no tankers have entered or left several Russian ports, effectively disrupting operations.
“Almost nothing has been happening in Ust-Luga since April 1. Primorsk has recovered a little – an average of two tankers per day have started entering and leaving there,” he said.
He warned that infrastructure and “shadow fleet” tankers could also be at risk of Kyiv’s strikes.
Sanctions pressure
Vlasyuk said there is “no illusion” that sanctions pressure will be eased in the coming months, adding that work is already underway on the EU’s 21st sanctions package.
He said the UK and Canada are also preparing new measures, while Japan has yet to present a new package, and Washington’s position on oil sanctions remains unclear.
The 21st package, he said, is expected to focus heavily on cryptocurrency-based sanctions evasion and Russian financial institutions.
A separate, smaller package targeting child abductions has already been prepared.
He added that the military-industrial complex remains a core sanctions focus, with ongoing efforts to target weapons producers and third-country suppliers.
Questions remain over whether additional Russian oligarchs will be targeted, he added, noting that Hungarian position previously led to the removal of Arkady Dvorkovich from sanctions listings.
“We’ll see if the government changes in Hungary, whether they will continue to protect Russian oligarchs. If not, then the list of such persons will probably expand,” he said.
Russian frozen assets
Vlasyuk also addressed frozen Russian assets, noting recent Canadian legislative changes that may allow Ottawa to seize and redirect profits from immobilised Russian funds to Ukraine.
He said the amounts involved are relatively small but the precedent is important.
He reiterated Kyiv’s position that full confiscation of Russian sovereign assets would be the most effective solution, though he acknowledged political and legal obstacles remain.
A compromise agreed in December 2025 allows assets to remain frozen while Ukraine receives funds as credit backed by future returns, though implementation has been partially blocked by several countries, including Hungary.
“Would it be right to finally completely and irrevocably withdraw these funds from the Russian Federation? In my opinion, yes. Our position here has not changed. We continue to raise this issue at the highest level,” he said.
He added that no major breakthroughs are expected in the near term.
“There is some routine legal work underway to ensure that more countries feel comfortable with such a decision, in particular Belgium. It is very likely that the process will take several years,” Vlasyuk said.
