The impact of Ukrainian strikes on supply lines leading to the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula is becoming increasingly apparent. Fuel sales have been suspended at times, and road traffic across the Kerch Bridge, as well as ferry services, have been temporarily halted. Tourist numbers are also plummeting. What are the ramifications?
A measure of Putin’s power
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Postimees explains why it is so important for Russia to retain control over the peninsula (Estonia):
“If someone’s brother, son or husband is killed in the war, the conquest of Crimea and its annexation by Russia can be used as justification. ... If, after the enormous losses of the past four years of war, Russia proves incapable of holding on to Crimea, things will look pretty bad for it. If Ukraine recaptures Crimea, this will mean the collapse of Putin’s regime – even if some occupied Ukrainian territories were to remain in Russian hands. Crimea is the yardstick for how much power Putin wields.”
Ukraine securing a stronger negotiating position
Webcafé sees this as a strategic move by Ukraine (Bulgaria):
“The land link in the north, which is under constant fire, the closed ferry service across the Kerch Strait and the blocked Kerch Bridge mean that around 2.4 million people in Crimea are living under extremely difficult economic conditions. Key sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, retail and, above all, summer tourism, are particularly hard hit. ... Ukraine is thus weakening the entire southern front without having to directly break through Russia’s fortified positions in Kherson or Zaporizhzhia. If Moscow fails to counter this strategy, Kyiv could use the Crimean crisis to strengthen its negotiating position in future peace talks.”
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