Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Myanmar’s anti-junta alliance is splitting under Beijing’s influence, Vietnam conducts its first-ever live-fire joint exercises with China, Malaysia’s Iranian double game on oil, and why Indonesians are scrubbing their cats.
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Myanmar’s Anti-Junta Alliance Turns on Itself
On March 16, news broke that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) had seized Kutkai, in northern Shan State—not from Myanmar’s ruling junta, but rather from the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
What prompted the MNDAA to turn on its erstwhile ally? Both groups are part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that launched Operation 1027, which brought the junta to its knees in 2023 and 2024.
Since March 19 it seems a cease-fire has been established—though outstanding issues apparently remain.
The MNDAA claims the cause was the TNLA attacking MNDAA troops on patrol on March 14. The two groups do have a history of skirmishing for territory.
Others point to China—which, as last week’s newsletter highlighted, exerts a growing influence over the MNDAA.
“It seems to me the MNDAA is becoming a tool for China’s strategic interests in northern Myanmar,” Angshuman Choudhury, a researcher focusing on Myanmar, told Foreign Policy.
The significance of Kutkai is that it lies on a long highway that connects Chinese Yunnan to central Myanmar, which is still under the control of the military. The TNLA had apparently operated checkpoints there, holding up trucks, Choudhury said.
An unblocked road could let commerce flow more freely and could help stabilize the junta as it transitions to a new political setup. This would suit China, a former patron of the Three Brotherhood Alliance now backing the junta for fear of a failed state on its border.
The fact that China seemingly hasn’t leaned on the MNDAA to stop its aggression—which also included drone strikes near Namkham—suggests it approves of it, Choudhury said.
“China told the FPNCC [Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee, an alliance of ethnic armed organizations] not to intervene and mediate,” he added.
Why the MNDAA might be more susceptible to Chinese pressure than its fellow ethnic armed organizations is unclear, though a few factors might be noted.
The MNDAA is a splinter of the Burmese Communist Party, with long historic links to China. Its members are predominantly Kokang Chinese—Mandarin-speaking ethnic Chinese.
Also, China has in the recent past yanked the leash briefly, detaining the leader of the MNDAA in 2024 and 2025.
The strategic gain of an unlocked highway to China comes at a good time for the Myanmar junta.
Following a January show election, Myanmar’s new parliament sat for the first time on March 16.
A new president—tipped as junta leader Min Aung Hlaing—will soon be selected. And there are signs of a softening of diplomatic positions toward it in the region.
What We’re Watching
China-Vietnam ties strengthen. China and Vietnam conducted their first-ever live-fire joint exercise on March 17.
Two frigates from each country were involved in the joint exercise, which took place in the Beibu Gulf, which straddles southern China and Vietnam.
The exercise coincided with the two navies’ 40th joint patrol and 10th China-Vietnam Border Defense Friendship Exchange.
More notably, it also coincided with visits of three top Chinese officials—Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi along with the Minister of National Defense and Minister of National Security—who met with Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, as well as their Vietnamese ministerial counterparts.
Nhan Dan, the official newspaper of the Vietnamese Communist Party, declared the new 3+3 dialogue showed “a high level of political trust and increasingly profound strategic collaboration” between the two countries.
Vietnam has also pursued a closer relationship with the United States, too, even joining President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace.
But a recent announcement by Nhan Dan on the comprehensive strategic partnership with the U.S. used language a degree or two less warm.
Thai PM starts new term. On March 19, Anutin Charnvirakul was reelected to his position as prime minister.
His cabinet will be announced shortly, but it is widely expected that the technocrats holding the finance, foreign, and commerce portfolios will remain in place, with various politicians filling other positions.
With his coalition holding 293 of 498 votes, Anutin’s position looks strong. But the government is facing an energy crisis, with Thailand particularly exposed to the disruptions of the Iran war.
Diesel shortages have been reported across the country. The opposition is already trying to make hay.
Another issue is that on March 18 the Constitutional Court announced it had accepted a case that could potentially annul the election results. Filed by the Thai ombudsman, the case hinges on barcodes on ballots cast during the election.
Critics say the barcode could be used to identify voters. The Election Commission says the barcodes boosted security and no one could be identified without other information that is securely stored.
Thai courts annulled the election in 2006 on the grounds the ballot had not been secret.
However, the political context was very different then, with a military-royalist elite pushing back against a populist victory. In this most recent election, conservative forces triumphed.
Spring cleaning your cats. In Indonesia in the run-up to Eid—known locally as Hari Raya—the traditional thing is to give everything a thorough scrub.
With the relatives and neighbors coming around, you prepare by cleaning the good teak furniture, dusting the curtains in the living room, and polishing up the fancy china.
Now a new item is getting added to that list: cats. Indonesian social media, like the rest of the world long dominated by feline content, is ablaze with videos of people scrubbing and shampooing furry companions ahead of the big day.
Cats have long been a favored animal in Islam. Various hadiths attest to the prophet’s love of them. Mu’izza is a particularly popular cat name in Indonesia—allegedly the name of Mohammed’s own beloved pet.
But in animal-loving Indonesia, cats seem especially beloved.
A recent survey found that almost half of all Indonesian households own a cat. Meanwhile, industry estimates suggest spending on pets is growing at about 10 percent a year.
A cat can even be a political tool. President Prabowo Subianto’s secret weapon when he campaigned for president in 2024 was a cat called Bobby. Inevitably, the cat’s official Instagram account has posted a tasteful Eid greeting.
Photo of the Week
Religious officials and experts use telescopes and modern imaging devices to see the new moon to determine the end of Ramadan in Perlis, Malaysia, on March 19.Photo by Farid Bin Tajuddin/Anadolu via Getty Images
