Over the course of President Donald Trump’s second term in office, the United States has greatly increased its military strikes inside Somalia. Throughout the previous administration of President Joe Biden, the US launched only 48 strikes inside the country. In the first two years of Trump’s second term, this number has so far risen to at least 207 strikes.
While 2025 saw the US largely focus on the Islamic State’s so-called Somali Province (ISS), US targeting patterns so far this year suggest it is returning its focus back to Shabaab, Al Qaeda’s branch for East Africa.
The total known strikes under the second Trump administration may also be an undercount, as the US military’s Africa Command (AFRICOM) no longer provides complete information in post-strike media releases. In some cases, the specific area where a strike took place is no longer stated, nor are any casualty assessments.
The majority of known strikes in Somalia during 2025 —a record year for US military action inside the country, with 132 total strikes—targeted ISS at least 77 times, as the US was deeply involved in supporting the then-raging counter-offensive against ISS led by Puntland forces. The remaining 54 strikes in 2025 targeted Shabaab in southern and central Somalia, while one strike hit alleged arms traffickers.
Both the US and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) provided air support to Puntland troops throughout 2025 as they fought to wrest control of the Cal Miskaad Mountains southeast of Bosaso back from ISS fighters, partly explaining the high numbers.
Data compiled by FDD’s Long War Journal show that the UAE launched at least 19 strikes in this effort to support Puntland, though this, too, is likely an undercount, as the information is based on Puntland officials confirming UAE strikes rather than the Emiratis themselves. The exact number remains murky.
As the Puntland offensive against ISS has largely quieted (though sporadic action from ISS remnants still remains), the US has shifted its targeting pattern back to Shabaab. So far this year, there have been at least 74 American strikes inside Somalia, 41 of which have targeted Shabaab, according to Long War Journal data. These numbers indicate that the US is returning to its posture against jihadist groups prior to the Puntland offensive, when Shabaab, rather than the Islamic State’s local wing, was its primary focus.
For example, between November 3, 2017, the date of the first American strikes against ISS, and January 20, 2025, when Donald Trump returned to office, the US only struck ISS 15 times. In the same period, Shabaab was hit at least 213 times. Again, this shift back toward targeting Shabaab is partially explained by the winding down of Puntland’s offensive. However, it also correlates to the Al Qaeda branch’s resurgence.
Over the last year and a half, Shabaab has been able to take back much of the territory it lost during the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) offensive against the group between 2022 and 2023. It has also been incrementally taking over additional territory across southern and central Somalia, degrading FGS authority.
The FGS is also currently embroiled in several concurrent crises over the legitimacy of the current administration of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud that have devolved into open conflict, most notably in Southwest State. Thus, the government’s focus against Shabaab has been greatly reduced and provided additional breathing room to the jihadist group.
Simultaneously, the US recently signaled that it will no longer help support the United Nations mission in Somalia, which is the logistical backbone of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The AU troops provided a key pillar of defense against Shabaab for nearly two decades, which is now threatened by the US’s withdrawal of support.
The US has cited the Somalian government’s legitimacy crisis and its lack of progress against Shabaab as reasons for cutting the funding. The Trump administration also noted that it is not opposed to AUSSOM, just the supporting UN mission.
The questionable future of AUSSOM could provide another boon for Shabaab. However, the US has also stated that it will retain its own counterterrorism focus in Somalia against both Shabaab and ISS.
In addition, the Trump administration has loosened restrictions on strikes, granting local commanders strike authorization rather than the highly centralized strike authorizations under both Obama and Biden. Thus, record numbers of US airstrikes and (occasional) ground operations are likely to continue for the remainder of the second Trump administration.
Caleb Weiss is an editor of FDD's Long War Journal and a senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation, where he focuses on the spread of the Islamic State in Central Africa.
Tags: ISS, Shabaab, Somalia, US-Somalia
