Did Pashinyan win, or didn’t he?
He won — with a caveat. Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party took 49.8% of the vote, enough to secure a parliamentary majority and form a government without coalition partners, but short of the supermajority needed to call a referendum on constitutional amendments. Pashinyan needs that referendum to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan: Baku is demanding that Yerevan strip its Constitution of all references to reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh. At 65% or above, Civil Contract could have called the vote unilaterally. Instead, the party will have to court allies among Armenia’s pro-Russian opposition that has no interest in holding such a vote.
Will Armenia now turn away from Russia?
Probably not. In the run-up to the vote, Moscow mounted a pressure campaign against Yerevan, accusing Pashinyan of moving closer to the West. Russian authorities banned imports of Armenian fruit, demanded a referendum on the choice between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, and threatened to raise gas prices and repeat the Ukrainian scenario. Pashinyan trolled Vladimir Putin but said he had no intention of choosing between Europe and Russia. After the election, he repeated that position, though in a more conciliatory tone. Analysts expect him to continue building ties with the West while trying not to antagonize Moscow. Armenia’s economy is too dependent on Russia to risk that relationship for a still-nascent rapprochement with Europe.
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